Yesterday, I noted that a Libyan opposition website, Almanara, had posted videos showing disturbances in Libya during the last few days. After that, something odd happened: the website disappeared. Trying to access Almanara this morning, I simply got an error message.

Conceivably this could be just a technical glitch, but I suspect not. A YouTube video of the protests, which I linked to at the same time, has also disappeared and there are claims on Twitter that access to social networking websites inside Libya is being blocked. Another Libyan website, Libya Almostakbal, reports that it has been attacked twice since Friday.

Several copies of the videos, which I didn't link to yesterday, are still available on the internet. I won't provide links to them all, but here is one of them – just to see what happens to it.

The protests themselves have not been reported in the official Libyan media, apart from a statement from the Revolutionary Committee condemning them.

Meanwhile, the cause of the trouble is becoming clearer. It's about delays in providing subsidised housing, and since Thursday activists in several towns have taken over hundreds of empty properties.

For example, the Egyptian website, AhramOnline, reports that on Saturday night "hundreds of people broke into vacant houses and took over about 800 vacant units in Bani Walid city (180 kilometres south east from the capital, Tripoli)".

A further problem is that at least some of the empty apartments taken over by the activists have already been allocated to people who had signed contracts and paid money but now find others occupying the homes they were expecting.

There are also hints of corruption in the allocation of housing. Referring to the situation in Bani Walid, a statement from the National Front for Salvation of Libya (an opposition movement) quoted by AhramOnline said: "Bani Walid has no basic services; thousands of people are without houses and the local authority is corrupted, it only delivers services with bribes. Nothing will make Bani Walid calm but freedom, justice and transparency."

So far, the Gaddafi regime – for all its eccentricity – has handled the protests more smartly than the Ben Ali regime did in Tunisia. Large numbers of police have been standing by, watching, but they are said to have instructions not to open fire. The Libyan regime has also made conciliatory noises towards the protesters. The Revolutionary Committee's statement said: "We have formed a committee to investigate every complaint, all the problems will be solved soon through the legitimate authorities." 

Contrast that with the Tunisian regime which, a week after the initial trouble in Sidi Bouzid, was still largely in denial and trying to justify the authorities' action in stopping Mohamed Bouazizi from selling his fruit.

So, Gaddafi may succeed in quietening things down with promises, committee meetings and the sacking of a few officials. It's unlikely, though, that the more systemic problems will be addressed in any meaningful way – with the result that the protests, if they die down now, are bound to return at some point in the future.

Posted by Brian Whitaker, 17 Jan 2011.