Wednesday March 19, 2003

Tony Blair need not go into exile just yet. Last night his government won formal backing for war with Iraq when parliament voted 2-1 in favour. This was despite the biggest ever revolt by MPs. Among the ruling Labour party, 139 members rebelled, and 16 Conservatives, 53 Liberal Democrats and 11 others joined them. But because of Mr Blair's massive built-in majority, it was still well short of the total that might have forced regime change in Britain.

In other developments overnight, the Turkish government said it will try again to get permission from parliament for US warplanes to fly over its territory, and the White House suddenly changed the terms of its ultimatum to Saddam Hussein.

The Iraqi leader had earlier been given 48 hours to avert war by fleeing Iraq along with his two appalling sons, but last night White House spokesman Ari Fleischer said US forces would invade "no matter what". The excuse, apparently, is that they need to hunt for weapons of mass destruction.

The official UN weapons inspectors, meanwhile, have all been evacuated from Iraq - several of them complaining about the curtailment of their work and the aspersions that have been cast on their professional abilities. What chance they'll sue President Bush for constructive dismissal?

Colin Powell claimed last night that 45 countries have now joined the "coalition of the willing" against Iraq. They include such key players as Afghanistan, Latvia, Lithuania, Nicaragua and Uzbekistan, but 15 of them have asked not to be named until they see which way the war is going.

In some cases, calling these countries supporters of the war would be extremely generous with the truth - a bit like describing concrete posts that hold up a football stadium as "supporters" of Manchester United. Spain, whose smiling little prime minister managed to get his photo taken next to George Bush and Mr Blair at the weekend, has confirmed that it won't actually be sending any troops.

Talking of support, an opinion poll this morning by the Washington-based Pew Research Center finds rapidly declining enthusiasm for the United States in Europe. In Italy, only 34% view the US favourably, compared with 70% in 2002. The current figure for Britain is 48%, Spain 14%, France 31% and Germany 25%.

The Iraqi parliament is meeting this morning, probably for the last time under its present management. Don't expect any surprises there - members do exactly what they're told, unlike MPs in Britain. It's just an exercise in spreading responsibility for Iraq's fate beyond Saddam and his immediate circle. The session began with the parliamentary speaker urging Iraqis to rally behind their leader.

At 1500 GMT foreign ministers will get together at the UN Security Council where the chief weapons inspector, Hans Blix, is due to give a report spelling out what Iraq should do to prove that it has disarmed. This is now totally irrelevant but France, Germany and Russia may seize the opportunity to denounce, once again, the coming invasion.

The American ultimatum to Iraq expires tonight at 0115 GMT (0415 in Baghdad), and war could come any time after that. President Bush might wait another day or two until Turkey sorts its position out or weather conditions are favourable, but it's probably still worth tuning in to CNN or al-Jazeera tonight in case he does launch the most expensive (and lethal) fireworks display the world has ever seen.

An Iraqi correspondent in Baghdad says everyone there is trying to buy earplugs, so as not to lose too much sleep, but the shops have run out. If anyone has ideas for DIY earplugs, let us know and we'll pass the message on.

Weather in Baghdad tonight: passing clouds, wind west-south-west at 11 mph, humidity 45%, visibility 17 miles. Minimum temperature 57 F (14 C), which the Lycos forecast describes as "refreshingly cool".

Thursday March 20, 2003

It's begun. Well, sort of ... but more with a whimper than a bang. Last night's deadline for Saddam Hussein to flee Iraq came and went, and at first nothing happened. For almost two hours, CNN's cameras - fixed on the roof of the information ministry in Baghdad - showed undramatic scenes of traffic lights changing in the street below and occasional vehicles passing.

Shortly before 0300 GMT, there were flashes in the distance, accompanied by anti-aircraft fire from the Iraqis - though correspondents on the ground heard no planes. There was also a brief flurry of excitement when someone claimed the Americans had taken over the main Iraqi radio station but others who tuned in to listen found everything normal.

It turned out that President George Bush had not really meant to start the war last night but changed his mind when a "target of opportunity" turned up. It appears that US military intelligence thought they knew where Saddam Hussein was, along with other members of his regime, and proposed a "decapitation strike". If successful, this would have brought the war to a halt even before it had properly got under way.

The assassination plan was presented to Mr Bush at a four-hour meeting which ended at 0020 GMT - just in time for the president to have what the White House described as a "relaxing dinner" with his wife. On the way to dinner, Mr Bush told his speechwriter to get busy.

At 0315 GMT he appeared on television to announce that "coalition" forces were in the early stages of military operations against selective targets. Every effort would be made, he said, to show respect for Iraqi citizens, for the country's "great civilisation" and its religious faiths.

But there would be no half-measures, he warned. "We will accept no outcome but victory."

With these words, according to CNN, Mr Bush went straight to bed.

CNN also promised a live statement from Tony Blair at 0330 GMT, but if the British prime minister did wake up to echo his master's voice, CNN didn't bother to show it.

Details of last night's "decapitation strike" are still sketchy, but it seems they targeted two sites on the southern outskirts of Baghdad. More than 40 satellite-guided cruise missiles were reportedly used, mainly launched from ships and submarines. A number of F-117 stealth fighter-bombers also took part.

The Pentagon later released video clips, filmed in the dark, showing flashes and puffs of smoke as cruise missiles blasted off from a warship. These historic pictures, a CNN reporter enthused, had been transmitted back to Washington by the technological miracle of email.

According to the Iraqi authorities, 10 people died in the attack last night - though Saddam Hussein was apparently not among them.

One of the CNN's armchair generals pointed out that decapitation strikes rarely succeed. But he added that it would still be "very disconcerting" for Saddam, who would now be wondering if someone inside the regime was giving the US information as to his whereabouts.

That, of course, depends on what the missiles actually hit. If US intelligence about the target of opportunity was as inaccurate as it appears, Saddam is probably feeling rather relieved.

Some experts see last night's assassination attempt as part of a calculated psychological war, which includes the rumours circulated yesterday that Tariq Aziz, Iraq's deputy prime minister, had either defected or been killed.

Such things are liable to damage the regime's morale if people start to believe them, and yesterday Mr Aziz was forced to call a hasty press conference in order to prove he was still alive.

Today, Iraq responded to the "decapitation strike" with a radio message from Saddam's son, Udai, followed by the information minister who told listeners "victory is certain, certain, certain", and finally a TV appearance by Saddam Hussein (or at least someone looking very much like him). He seemed to have acquired a new pair of spectacles for the occasion, with impressively thick black rims.

Latest word from the US is that the main "shock and awe" attack on Baghdad is still some hours away - probably after nightfall this evening.

President Bush's diary for the next 24 hours is clear of official engagements, except for another dinner - not with his wife this time, but with the president of Cameroon.

Weather in Baghdad today: mild, with more sun than clouds. Tonight: broken clouds, cool.

Friday March 21, 2003

After an initial diversion to take pot-shots at Saddam Hussein yesterday, the war is now well under way, but mercifully without the "shock and awe" tactics that had been predicted for the opening phase.

Military chiefs have not entirely abandoned the idea of a massive bombing campaign but are waiting to see if Iraqi forces can be persuaded to give up the fight without it.

If "shock and awe" can be avoided there will be less risk of heavy civilian casualties and less damage to be repaired afterwards. So far, there has been little resistance from the Iraqi army, which is heavily outgunned by western technology - though the threat to invading forces could become more serious as they approach Baghdad.

Iraq has fired a number of missiles at Kuwait and there is argument as to whether any of them were Scuds. If they were, it would be proof that Saddam has been lying about his weaponry.

An unspecified number of oil fires have been detected by satellites, suggesting that Saddam may be resorting to scorched-earth tactics, as he did towards the end of the 1991 war in Kuwait. If carried out on a large scale, this would not only slow progress of the invasion but delay Iraq's postwar recovery as well as causing long-term environmental damage.

Yesterday, American and British forces advanced into southern Iraq, with British marines launching an assault on the strategically important Faw peninsula. The port of Umm Qasr, just across the border from Kuwait, was also captured.

This morning, there are reports of US tanks moving rapidly through the desert towards Baghdad, meeting little resistance along the way. Whether they are heading immediately to Baghdad is unclear - it could be partly a psychological move to frighten the Iraqi leadership.

The war also brought its first western casualties yesterday when a helicopter crashed in Kuwait, killing 12 British soldiers and four American crew. There is no suggestion that the aircraft was shot down.

Baghdad came under renewed attack last night from some 60 cruise missiles aimed at government and military targets. One of the buildings hit was the planning ministry. Explosions were also heard in Basra in southern Iraq and Mosul in the north.

Today, apart from the fast-moving developments in the south, attention is also likely to focus on the north, where the picture is still far from clear. The US is anxious to secure this area early because of the possibility of independent action by Kurdish forces, or even by Turkey.

Outside Iraq, opposition to the war continues strongly. Britain and France clashed again last night at a European summit in Brussels. One of the arguments - which is likely to grow louder in the coming weeks - is about who should pay for rebuilding Iraq after the war. France has already suggested that those who cause the damage should foot the bill.

On the streets, there have also been worldwide protests, with hundreds arrested in the United States. In Britain. Even schoolchildren have been skipping classes to attend demonstrations - some of them organised via text messages. Riot police were out in force in Cairo yesterday, lashing out with batons at protesters who directed their anger at President Hosni Mubarak as well as the United States.

As today is the first Friday since the outbreak of war - a Muslim holiday - further protests can be expected in the Middle East after midday prayers.

Anger may be further inflamed by Israel's announcement that the US has offered $10bn (£6.4bn) to support its crisis-ridden economy. Although the US has not confirmed the offer, this is liable to be viewed in the region as further evidence of American double standards.

Monday March 24, 2003

It is day five, and suddenly the clinical, precision war talked about by General Tommy Franks at the Centcom press conference on Saturday is looking very messy.

Five US soldiers from a maintenance unit, including a woman, were paraded on Iraqi television yesterday afternoon, looking battered and confused. They had been taken prisoner after their vehicle lost its way in Suq al-Shuyukh, near Nassiriya.

The Arab satellite channel, al-Jazeera, also showed pictures of the corpses of several US soldiers who were killed in the same area.

Terry Lloyd, a reporter with the British television news channel ITN, was confirmed dead yesterday. Two of his colleagues are still missing in the Basra area.

Evidence of civilian casualties on the Iraqi side emerged over the weekend, when al-Jazeera broadcast horrific pictures from both Basra, in the south, and the area in which the Ansar al-Islam group was bombed, in the north. One showed a child's head split open.

Although some of the invasion forces have sped on towards Baghdad, others have been left behind to mop up local resistance, a job which is proving a lot more difficult than reports had at first suggested.

Umm Qasr, the port town just across the border from Kuwait, has been reported as having been "secured" several times, but it is still not certain whether the invasion forces have total control there.

The Iraqi vice-president, Taha Yassin Ramadan, yesterday gave an upbeat press conference, claiming that "operations are going on in an excellent and comfortable manner for Iraq".

He continued ominously: "They say that they are heading towards Baghdad, and that they covered more than 160 or 180km towards Baghdad.

"I would like to tell them that, in the course that they are following, let them continue up to 300km and let them mobilise all the tanks and marines they have, and we will not clash with them soon. We will give them enough time.

"However, in any contact with any Iraqi village or city, they [the invasion forces] will find what they are now witnessing in Umm Qasr and Suq al-Shuyukh."

This morning, two British soldiers were reported missing after their vehicle came under fire in southern Iraq. The defence ministry in London gave no further details.

Over the weekend, a British Tornado warplane returning from a mission in Iraq was mistaken for an incoming missile, and was shot down by Patriot rockets in Kuwait. The crew of two died.

In a bizarre incident on Saturday, one US soldier died and 15 more were injured when one of their colleagues threw grenades into tents at a camp in Kuwait.

This was at first reported as a terrorist attack, but it seems more reminiscent of the "fragging" phenomenon witnessed during the Vietnam war, when disaffected soldiers attacked their officers with fragmentation grenades on several occasions.

So far, most of the confirmed deaths among the invasion forces have not come as a result of combat with Iraqis. Fourteen British and six US personnel have died in accidents, two Britons have been killed by friendly fire, and one American died in the grenade incident.

A crisis is also brewing on the northern border, where Turkish forces appear to have defied the US by entering the Kurdish area of Iraq. Adopting the same line of argument used by the US to justify its own invasion, Turkey says that it is merely taking "pre-emptive action".

An exclusive report in the Jerusalem Post this morning says that US forces are investigating a large factory in southern Iraq that could be connected with chemical weapons. If this turns out to be true, it would provide a huge boost to those who favoured military action rather than continued weapons inspections.

As yet, however, there is no confirmation, but more details may emerge during the course of the day.

Meanwhile, in a televised address to the country, the Iraqi president, Saddam Hussein, promised triumph over the coalition forces. He hailed Iraqi resistance and said: "Be patient, victory is coming."

Tuesday March 25, 2003

The only good news today is that the invasion forces are now within 50 miles or so of Baghdad - though a look back through the old newspapers shows that similar claims have been made for several days. The difference now, perhaps, is that there are far more American and British troops near the Iraqi capital than before.

In preparation for an assault on Baghdad, invasion forces have begun an intensive bombardment of Iraqi Republican Guard bunkers 30 miles outside the city. This, in the view of many, marks a crucial point in the war.

The advance on Baghdad is seen as good news by the prime minister, Tony Blair, who yesterday promised "certain victory".

"The vital goal is to reach Baghdad as swiftly as possible, thus bringing the end of the regime closer," he said.

But Saddam Hussein, who gave a televised speech yesterday, also saw the US-British advance as good news because it draws the invaders more deeply into his trap.

Despite the Iraqi leader's broadcast, some western spokesmen persisted with the idea that Saddam is dead and hinted that his speech might have been recorded in advance. If so, the late Saddam Hussein had remarkable clairvoyant powers because he mentioned numerous current events.

Meanwhile, serious trouble continues in Basra, Nassiriya and other parts of southern Iraq, though this morning the BBC reported that "substantial numbers" of US forces are at last passing through Nassiriya.

Even in Umm Qasr, just over the border from Kuwait, resistance continues. Last Saturday, 30 Iraqi fighters were said to be holding out there; today they are said to number "only" 100.

Overnight, the British military announced that a soldier from the 1st Battalion of the Black Watch had been killed in action near al-Zubayr in southern Iraq. A sandstorm was also hampering US troops advancing on Baghdad.

In other developments, President Bush is expected to ask Congress today for $75bn (£48bn) towards the cost of the war.

An opinion poll in Britain shows a sudden surge in the number of people who approve of military action to remove Saddam Hussein. There are now 54% in favour - a 16-point increase over seven days. Those against have dropped from 38% to 30%.

Today's big scare story comes from American TV networks which claim, citing intelligence sources, that Iraqi troops could be authorised to use chemical weapons if other means of defending the city fail.

Yesterday's scare, an exclusive story in the Jerusalem Post - where Pentagon arch-hawk Richard Perle is a board member - told of the discovery of a suspected chemical weapons factory in southern Iraq. There is still no confirmation of the factory's purpose, and some experts have cast serious doubt on it.

With less than a week gone, predictions of a quick and clinical victory are looking less credible than they did in the first couple of days. Wars are rarely that easy, and it is difficult to know what the real (but private) expectations of General Franks and the other commanders were.

But they do seem to have been surprised by the levels of resistance in the south, where Saddam's cousin, "Chemical Ali", is in charge.

There is also disappointment that the Shia population of the south have not risen up against the Ba'athist regime. A Shia opposition official, interviewed on the radio last night, explained this very simply.

In 1991, he said, the Americans encouraged them to rebel against Saddam, but were then betrayed by the US. They are not going to be fooled a second time and will therefore keep their heads down until they are sure who is winning.

More generally, though there is ample evidence of popular hatred for Saddam and his regime, there are few signs of enthusiasm for the American and British invaders either. The following quote, sent in by a reader, may be relevant: "Our armies do not come into your cities and lands as conquerors or enemies, but as liberators. Your wealth has been stripped of you by unjust men ... The people of Baghdad shall flourish under institutions which are in consonance with their sacred laws."

The words were uttered by General F S Maude, commander of British forces in Iraq ... and the year was 1917.

Wednesday March 26, 2003

After a series of setbacks, and with the advance on Baghdad delayed by sandstorms, the invasion forces were badly in need of some positive developments yesterday.

The first success of the day - which came just at the right moment for prime-time television news in the UK - was a claim by the British military that a "popular uprising" against Saddam Hussein's regime had broken out in Basra.

British forces then weighed in with artillery support for the rebelling Shia population and a 2,000-lb bomb was dropped on the Ba'ath party headquarters, according to reports. The British deputy commander, Major-General Peter Wall, hailed the uprising as "just the sort of encouraging indication we have been looking for".

At present, very little news is coming out of Basra from independent sources, so it is difficult to be sure what is really happening. Some British versions have been much more cautious, describing the uprising as "nascent", while al-Jazeera's reporter inside the city said there was no sign of any uprising at all.

Until now, Shia organisations in southern Iraq have been very wary of getting involved in the war. In 1991, the US encouraged them to rebel but then abandoned them to their fate at the hands of Saddam's merciless men.

The US 7th Cavalry also claimed success yesterday in a battle against Iraqi foot-soldiers near Najaf, 100 miles south of Baghdad. News of this no-contest victory, in which two American tanks and an armoured troop carrier were damaged, came just at the right moment for prime-time TV in the United States. Between 150 and 500 Iraqis are believed to have died.

Two British soldiers were killed and two more critically injured when one Challenger tank opened fire on another in a "misdirected attack" on Monday, it was announced yesterday. It is the second time during this war that "friendly fire" has claimed British lives, and an investigation is under way.

Overnight, bombing continued in Baghdad, apparently aimed at Iraqi state television. Broadcasts were interrupted briefly but resumed with a weaker signal - presumably from a back-up transmitter.

In Nassiriya yesterday, US officers said they had found 3,000 chemical protection suits and large quantities of nerve gas antidote at a hospital which had been used as a base by Iraqi soldiers fighting the invasion. This is being interpreted as evidence that Iraq may be prepared to use chemical weapons.

However, the "antidote" - atropine - also has routine medical uses for treating heart patients and some respiratory conditions.

President George Bush formally asked Congress yesterday for almost $75bn (£48bn) to fund the war. He had delayed making the request until the invasion got under way, for fear of objections.

But far from balking at the cost, some congressmen seemed eager to provide more than he asked for. The figures suggest the US has budgeted for a war that will last one month.

The United Nations, meanwhile, announced that it will appeal for $1bn to save Iraq from a humanitarian disaster. Sixty per cent of Iraqis depend entirely on the UN's food rations and, according to the World Food Programme, only five weeks' supplies are left.

A subsidiary of Halliburton, vice-president Dick Cheney's old company, has been awarded a contract by the US army to put out fires and repair damaged infrastructure in the Iraqi oil industry. The value of the deal has not been officially disclosed, but is said to be in the region of $1bn.

Mr Cheney was chief executive of Halliburton until 2000 but gave up his stake in the company on becoming US vice-president. He reportedly still gets about $1m a year "compensation" from the company.

The British prime minister, Tony Blair, is due to meet President Bush in the US today. Apart from reviewing progress of the war, the two leaders are expected to discuss ways of patching up relations between the US and Europe once the war is over.

The UN security council has also scheduled an emergency meeting which is due to begin later today, possibly continuing until tomorrow. This is in response to calls from Arab and non-aligned countries for an end to the war and the withdrawal of US-led troops. It is unclear whether there will be any attempt to table a resolution to this effect - though such a move would almost certainly be vetoed by the US and Britain.

Thursday March 27, 2003

More than 1,000 members of the US 173rd Airborne Brigade landed in Kurdish-held northern Iraq overnight, with the aim of securing an airfield that can be used by cargo planes to land tanks and other equipment - thus opening up a northern front in the war.

The US military had originally hoped to send troops in over land, but failed to reach an agreement with Turkey, and so has resorted to air drops as a fall-back plan.

Activity on the northern front may divert some attention from southern Iraq, where the invasion forces are making slow headway. There are murmurings from some military experts that more troops are needed - which is just what the politicians don't want to hear.

At least 14 Iraqis were killed yesterday and dozens injured in a crowded marketplace in the Shaab district of northern Baghdad - apparently the result of American bombing.

The US military has so far given four different explanations: that one of its precision missiles might have gone astray; that the attack was aimed at Iraqi anti-aircraft missiles "positioned less than 300ft from homes"; that an Iraqi anti-aircraft missile hit the market; that an accurately-aimed US missile was deflected by Iraqi ground fire.

The gruesome scenes in the marketplace figured prominently in al-Jazeera's war coverage throughout the day, though the Iraqi deaths only made the third item in CNN's early morning news and largely vanished from American television after that.

The confused explanations given by the US military also raise questions about the competence of their information machine. As a source of information it's rapidly proving untrustworthy and as a source of propaganda it's equally ineffective.

Centcom's increasingly fraught press briefings in Qatar seem designed to provide junk news for the pliant American media while reporters from the rest of the world demand real answers to real questions.

The mystery over the "popular uprising" in Basra, announced by Britain on Tuesday, continues. British forces say they are getting a lot of information from inside the besieged city but still cannot give a coherent account of what is going on. One theory is that the "uprising" is/was a quarrel between different Ba'athist elements.

About 120 Iraqi tanks and armoured vehicles reportedly left Basra last night, heading south-east towards the Faw peninsula, and came under attack from the invasion forces. It is unclear how many have been destroyed.

Another overnight report, that a huge armoured column of Republican Guards was heading south from Baghdad, has been denied by the US military.

Other developments:

• The US is investigating reports that 37 Marines were injured by "friendly fire" near Nasiriya.

• British officials say that two dead soldiers, whose bodies were shown on al-Jazeera television yesterday, are "probably" two Britons who went missing near al-Zubayr on Sunday.

• The first British ship bringing humanitarian aid (200 tonnes of food, water and blankets) to Iraq has been unable to dock at Umm Qasr because of mines. It is expected to be delayed for 24 hours.

• An opinion poll by the Pew Research Centre says the number of Americans who believe the war is going well has fallen from 71% to 38% between last Friday and Monday.

• The US Fourth Infantry Division, originally destined for the northern front via Turkey, will shortly begin deploying to Kuwait, though it will not be ready to fight for another two to three weeks - a sign, perhaps, that the war will not be over quickly.

George Bush and Tony Blair are meeting in Camp David today. An article in the Washington Post this morning pays glowing tribute to Mr Blair: "His stature is high, his agenda ambitious, his optimism seemingly boundless ... He even looks more robust - the wan, haunted demeanour of recent weeks as he fought off the flu and widespread popular opposition in Britain to war has been replaced with rosier cheeks and his old cherubic grin." Less reverentially, the visit gave rise to ribald jokes on a British TV show last night about the nature of the two men's "special relationship".

Friday March 28, 2003

Amid admissions that Iraq has surprised the invasion forces with the strength of its resistance, and official predictions that the conflict will last longer than originally expected, there is news from Washington that Richard Perle, chief architect of the war, has resigned as chairman of the Pentagon's influential Defence Policy Board.

Mr Perle says he resigned to stop allegations about his business interests becoming a distraction from the "urgent challenge" of invading Iraq, but he apparently intends to stay on in a more minor role.

In 1996 Mr Perle, nicknamed the Prince of Darkness, was the main author of a report entitled "Clean Break" whose contents were revealed by the Guardian last September (Playing skittles with Saddam, September 3 2002). This set out a plan to protect Israel's strategic interests by reshaping the Middle East, starting with regime change in Iraq.

Last week, the Guardian disclosed Mr Perle's links to an intelligence-related computer firm that stands to profit from war with Iraq (Pentagon hawk linked to UK intelligence company, March 21 2003). Mr Perle has denied separate allegations published earlier this month in the New Yorker, and threatened to sue the magazine in Britain, where libel cases are much harder to defend than in the US.

According to a report to be published today by the US watchdog Center for Public Integrity, at least 10 out of 30 members of the Pentagon committee are executives or lobbyists with companies that have tens of billions of dollars' worth of contracts with the US defence department and other government agencies.

Britain's chief military officer in the Gulf, Air Marshal Brian Burridge, yesterday attacked American moves to hand over the running of Iraq's largest port to a company which has a history of bad industrial relations and has faced accusations of union-busting.

The firm, Stevedoring Services of American, has been awarded a £3m contract to manage Umm Qasr by the Bush administration. Britain argues that the port should be run by Iraqis once it has been made secure.

Another contract in Umm Qasr - for construction work - has gone to a subsidiary of Halliburton, Vice-President Dick Cheney's old firm.

Meanwhile, the arrival of the first ship carrying humanitarian aid to Umm Qasr has again been delayed because of the continuing risk from mines.

George Bush and Tony Blair ended their summit at Camp David yesterday with a joint press conference where they vowed to fight "for as long as it takes" to remove Saddam Hussein from power. But with growing perceptions in the Middle East that the invasion is aimed at conquering Iraq rather than liberating it, there is also a growing possibility that the removal of Saddam will not mark the end of the war.

From Camp David, Mr Blair went on to New York for talks with the UN secretary-general, Kofi Annan. Discussions centred on plans for a new security council resolution to restart the oil-for-food programme on which 60% of Iraqis depend for their survival.

The bombing of Baghdad continued overnight and a BBC correspondent in the city said the explosions heard were among the most violent since the start of the war. Targets included an Iraqi communications centre which was hit by two 4,700-lb "bunker-busting" bombs, according to US officials.

Following the parachute landing by about 1,000 troops to secure an airfield in northern Iraq on Wednesday, US cargo planes have begun delivering military supplies there, along with 200 more troops.

One of the main difficulties facing the invasion forces almost everywhere in Iraq is distinguishing soldiers from civilians - and the Baghdad regime is clearly putting civilians at risk by deliberately confusing the picture.

A "pooled" (and apparently censored) report by a Reuters correspondent this morning describes an attack by US marines on a bus near Nassirya in which 20 Iraqis were killed. The dead were wearing some civilian clothing and were said to be carrying papers that identified them as members of the Republican Guard - though the report says that only two guns were found on the bus.

British and American rules of engagement normally require clear evidence that targets are armed and hostile before troops can open fire. But because of the Iraqi use of non-uniformed fighters, troops are finding themselves in the invidious position of having to make split-second judgments.

This bodes ill for any future attempt to capture Baghdad. The Iraqi defence minister, Sultan Hashem Ahmed, was quoted yesterday as saying the capital "cannot be taken as long as the citizens in it are still alive".

Saturday March 29, 2003

Iraq suffered another civilian tragedy and the invasion forces suffered another public relations disaster when an explosion in a crowded market area of Baghdad killed more than 50 people yesterday.

It was the second incident of its kind within two days. A similar blast killed 14 people in a marketplace on Wednesday.

In the midst of an almost round-the-clock blitz on the city, there were strong suspicions that this was another mis-aimed strike by an American missile.

Following Wednesday's explosion, US officials gave a range of conflicting explanations - including the suggestion that it was caused by an Iraqi anti-aircraft missile falling back to earth - but last night the Pentagon made no immediate comment on the latest incident.

Whatever the actual cause, the damage to the US in terms of public opinion has already been done and will not be easily undone. TV stations - particularly the Arab satellite channels - showed pictures of the victims throughout the day, reinforcing the impression that the US is a greater immediate threat than Saddam Hussein.

In a move that threatens to widen the conflict, US defence secretary Donald Rumsfeld yesterday issued a warning to two of Iraq's neighbours, Syria and Iran.

He claimed that "military supplies" had been crossing the border from Syria into Iraq - though the only item he specifically mentioned was night-vision goggles.

Mr Rumsfeld took care not to blame the Syrian government directly for the alleged trafficking but said the government would be held accountable for it.

He also complained about "activity" inside Iraq by the Iranian-based Badr Corps and said the Iranian government would be held responsible for that.

The American neo-conservatives regard war with Iraq as the first stage of their wider plan to reshape Israel's "strategic environment" by toppling various regimes in the Middle East.

During a visit to Israel last month, John Bolton, US undersecretary of state for arms control, discussed with prime minister Ariel Sharon which countries to "deal with" after Iraq. Syria and Iran emerged as the favourites.

Early this morning a missile caused damage in Souq Sharq, a shopping and leisure area on the seafront in Kuwait City. The missile is thought to have landed nearby in the sea.

Although damage was light and no serious casualties were reported, this appears to be the first time since the war began that an Iraqi missile - believed to be a Chinese-made Silkworm - has got through the protective cordon of Patriot batteries into the Kuwaiti capital.

One theory is that the missile was fired from the Faw peninsula in southern Iraq and skimmed low over the sea to evade Kuwait's radar system.

Also this morning, there is a report by Reuters - attributed to unnamed US officers - that an "operational pause" in the war lasting several days is being planned to allow for re-grouping and re-supply of the American forces around Baghdad. So far, US military officials have refused to comment on the report.

Meanwhile, British military officials say they have no evidence to back up claims that four or five British soldiers were kidnapped in Basra overnight.

Sunday March 30, 2003

Four American soldiers died yesterday near Najaf in the first suicide bombing of the war.

At a press conference afterwards, Iraq's vice-president, Taha Yassin Ramadan, named the bomber as Ali Jaafar al-Nuamani, a non-commissioned officer in the Iraqi army - and indicated that suicide bombings will now become "routine military policy".

He also repeated the threat to carry out attacks in the US and Britain: "We will use any means ... and we will follow the enemy into its land," the vice-president said.

In an article in the Sunday Mirror this morning, Britain's former foreign secretary, Robin Cook, denounces the invasion as "bloody and unnecessary", and calls for British troops to be brought home because of the risk of stoking up a "long-term legacy of hatred" for the west throughout the Arab and Muslim world.

Mr Cook, who earlier resigned from the government in protest, says President Bush and his defence secretary, Donald Rumsfeld, seem to have no idea what to do now that their hopes that Iraq would swiftly capitulate have proved unfounded.

In the US, Mr Rumsfeld is increasingly being blamed for the military quagmire. The latest issue of the New Yorker magazine accuses him of repeatedly rejecting advice from his advisers about the number of troops that would be needed.

He was so convinced that the Iraqi regime would fall apart that he insisted at least six times on sharply reducing the number of ground troops that the military planners wanted to send, the article says.

It also reveals that he overruled advice from the war commander, General Tommy Franks, to delay the invasion until troops who had been denied access through Turkey could be brought in by another route.

Mr Rumsfeld, who on Friday threatened to drag Syria and Iran into the war, is due to give interviews for the Fox and ABC television channels later today.

The bodies of the first British casualties arrived back in Britain yesterday, in coffins draped with the union flag.

According to the latest figures from Reuters, 23 Britons and 36 Americans have been killed so far, with a further 15 Americans missing. Most deaths have been the result of accidents or "friendly fire".

Overnight, the US said two more marines had been killed in accidents. One drowned when his vehicle rolled into a canal and the other was hit by a vehicle during a firefight with Iraqi soldiers.

On the Iraqi side, reliable casualty figures are difficult to obtain. The official estimate is 589 killed and 4,582 injured, but there are suspicions that many other deaths are not being disclosed by the Iraqi authorities because of the possible effect on morale.

Early this morning, British forces said they had captured five Iraqi officers and killed a colonel of the Republican Guard in village near Basra.

There are also reports of numerous "explosions" in Baghdad, Basra and Mosul. In southern Iraq, the US says it has placed troops from US army's 82nd Airborne Division placed near Nassiriya to protect supply lines. Meanwhile, artillery fire has been heard just north of Umm Qasr, the Iraqi port that has frequently but wrongly been declared secure.

In the north, Iraqi troops have been bombarding areas near Chamchamal, which they earlier gave up to a Kurdish advance. Kurdish militias, in turn, say they have pushed about 16 miles into Iraqi government territory north of Kirkuk.

Citing military strategists, the Observer reports this morning that a full-scale assault on the Republican Guards could begin within three days and last for 10 days. That would be followed by a battle for Baghdad itself, lasting up to five weeks - taking the campaign into mid-May.

The British government yesterday repeated its view that the war will end once Saddam Hussein is removed, but there are growing signs that this will only mark the end of the first phase. The next stage - making Iraq secure and establishing a stable government - is likely to be longer and more even more difficult.

"A prolonged stay of US and British forces may turn the country into a magnet for militants seeking a new jihad," according to a report by Associated Press, which says thousands of Muslim militants who say they are ready for martyrdom have flocked to Iraq since the war began.

It quotes a warning by John Voll, an Islamic affairs expert at Georgetown University in the United States: "If there is an American occupation, then Iraq will definitely move to the top of the list of jihad for the international network of Islamists."

Monday March 31, 2003

American leaders moved swiftly yesterday to prevent the opening up of another front in the war - this time between Donald Rumsfeld, the US defence secretary, and his military chiefs.

The fuss is over an article published today in the New Yorker magazine, which blames Mr Rumsfeld for many of the problems on the battlefield.

It says that in the planning stages of the war, the defence secretary and his team of civilian advisers repeatedly overruled the military experts because they thought they knew better.

Both Mr Rumsfeld and the war commander, General Tommy Franks, have denied the allegations - though it's an open secret that Mr Rumsfeld's style of management has annoyed many in the Pentagon.

Meanwhile, a sign of possible dissent in the British ranks is a report this morning that three unnamed soldiers from the 16 Air Assault Brigade have been sent home to face a court martial. They are understood to have complained about the way the war is being fought and the growing danger to civilians.

Following the first suicide bombing of the war, which killed four American soldiers on Saturday, Iraq has claimed for have more than 4,000 other volunteers ready to "martyr" themselves.

Although Saddam Hussein's regime is largely secular, religious militants throughout the region will probably make strenuous efforts over the coming months to "Islamise" the conflict - as happened during the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan in the 1980s.

The Palestinian Islamic Jihad group yesterday issued a statement announcing "the good news" that the first of its suicide bombers had arrived in Baghdad. Because of the extremely tight security in Israel, American and British troops in Iraq are likely to become an easier and more attractive target for the foreseeable future.

Angered by the TV images of civilian casualties and the feeble efforts of their own governments to prevent the war, Arabs from various countries have been volunteering to fight in Iraq. Reports mention 100 in Algeria and 50 in Egypt. In Lebanon, 20 volunteers are said to have already gone, while hundreds more have applied for Iraqi visas.

In northern Kuwait yesterday, 15 US soldiers were injured when a civilian charged at them in a pick-up truck just outside their base at Camp Udairi. The attacker, said to be an Egyptian migrant worker, was shot and critically injured.

Bombing in and around Baghdad continued relentlessly over the weekend - though the US says three-quarters of the attacks are aimed at weakening the Republican Guard, which has set up a protective cordon around the city. Early this morning the information ministry was in flames, having been targeted by Tomahawk cruise missiles to "reduce the command and control capabilities" of the Iraqi government, according to the US.

One of the ministry's main functions is to supervise foreign journalists working in Iraq, and normally they are required to file reports from the ministry building so that their activities can be monitored. Night-time scenes of Baghdad frequently shown by CNN came from a camera on the ministry's roof. Ahead of the attack, much of the media activity had been transferred to the Palestine Hotel.

Also this morning, there are reports of significant military activity around Nassiriya where, according to the BBC, 5,000 additional US troops, including special forces, are being sent in an effort to defeat continuing Iraqi resistance.

A dawn raid on Shatra, north of the Nassiriya, reportedly targeted Saddam's cousin, "Chemical Ali", and other senior Iraqi officials who are believed to be directing guerrilla attacks in the area.

In Nassiriya itself, the US says marines have found large quantities of gas masks and anti-nerve gas chemicals in an abandoned Iraqi camp. It is reported this morning that American troops are attempting to communicate with Iraqis in the field via a hand-held electronic box known as a Phrasealator, which was first tried out in Afghanistan.

The user points to one of 1,000 phrases on a menu - such as "come out with your hands up" - and the box squawks out the message in Pashtu, Dari, Urdu or, in this case, Arabic. Unfortunately, there is no way the Americans can understand what the Iraqis say in reply.

Tuesday April 1, 2003

The invasion forces suffered another self-inflicted disaster in the battle for hearts and minds yesterday when soldiers from the US 3rd infantry division shot dead Iraqi seven women and children.

The incident occurred on Route 9, near Najaf, when a car carrying 13 women and children approached a checkpoint.

A US military spokesman says the soldiers motioned the vehicle to stop but their signals were ignored. However, according to the Washington Post, Captain Ronny Johnson, who was in charge of the checkpoint, blamed his own troops for ignoring orders to fire a warning shot.

"You just fucking killed a family because you didn't fire a warning shot soon enough!", he reportedly yelled at them.

In another checkpoint incident this morning, US forces say they killed an unarmed Iraqi driver outside Shatra.

Meanwhile it has emerged - as a result of detective work on the internet by a Guardian reader - that the explosion in a Baghdad market which killed more than 60 people last Friday was indeed caused by a cruise missile and not an Iraqi anti-aircraft rocket as the US has suggested.

A metal fragment found at the scene by British journalist Robert Fisk carried various markings, including "MFR 96214 09". This, our reader pointed out in an email, is a manufacturer's identification number known as a "cage code".

Cage codes can be looked up on the internet (www.gidm.dlis.dla.mil), and keying in the number 96214 traces the fragment back to a plant in McKinney, Texas, owned by the Raytheon Company.

Raytheon, whose headquarters are in Lexington, Massachusetts, aspires "to be the most admired defence and aerospace systems supplier through world-class people and technology", according to its website (www.raytheon.com). It makes a vast array of military equipment, including the AGM-129 cruise missile which is launched from B-52 bombers.

On the political front, two new quarrels have broken out. One centres on an attempt by the US to set up its own inspection team to find the alleged Iraqi weapons that United Nations inspectors did not find. The US appears unaware that such a project will have little credibility internationally and has pressed ahead, offering jobs to some of the UN inspectors.

The two chief UN inspectors, Hans Blix and Mohamed ElBaradei, head of the International Atomic Energy Authority, are reportedly furious. Dr Baradei, in remarks quoted by the BBC, insisted that the IAEA is the sole body with legal authority to verify any nuclear programmes in Iraq.

The other row concerns the new Pentagon-controlled Iraqi government that the US is establishing in Kuwait, with 23 ministries, each headed by an American and with four US-appointed Iraqi advisers.

Former US general Jay Garner, who was placed in overall charge of the "interim government", is annoyed by the efforts of Paul Wolfowitz, the deputy defence secretary, to impose several controversial Iraqis as advisers in the government.

They include Ahmed Chalabi, head of the opposition Iraqi National Congress, who will be offered an advisory post in the finance ministry. Mr Chalabi was previously convicted in his absence of a multi-million dollar banking fraud in Jordan, though he denies the charges.

Mr Wolfowitz wants posts in other ministries to go to Mr Chalabi's nephew, Salem, and to three of his close associates, Tamara Daghestani, Goran Talebani and Aras Habib.

In an interview with the BBC yesterday, the British home secretary, David Blunkett, conceded that at present the invasion forces are "seen as villains", but he added:

"Once this is over and there is a free Iraq, with a democratic state ... the population as a whole will say that we want a free country, we want a state to live in where we can use our talents to the full."

The veteran American war correspondent, Peter Arnett, was sacked by NBC television yesterday for giving an interview to an Iraqi TV journalist in which he said the US had "misjudged the determination of the Iraqi forces". He was immediately offered a new job by a British newspaper, the Daily Mirror, which opposes the war.

Another war-related tragedy has occurred in Israel, where two elderly sisters were found dead - apparently suffocated - in a room that they had made airtight against a possible Iraqi chemical attack. Three others died in similar circumstances a fortnight ago.

On the ground in Iraq, battles continue in various locations. US forces "testing" the southern defences of Baghdad are reportedly fighting Republican Guards and other forces at Hindiya, some 50 miles from the capital.

Fighting has also erupted along the Euphrates river near ancient Babylon. US marines entered Shatra, 20 miles north of Nassiriya, after storming it with planes, tanks and helicopter gunships, and British Royal Marines clashed with Iraqi paramilitaries south of Basra.

Bombing of Baghdad continued overnight. Targets included the Iraqi national Olympic committee, which is run by Saddam Hussein's son, Uday.

At least one American soldier has been reported killed at Hindiya. A British soldier was also killed yesterday - the 26th since the war began. The defence ministry said he died "in the course of his duties" but gave no details.

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