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Let me begin today's briefing with
a short account of the work being performed by UNMOVIC in Iraq. We
have continued to build up our capabilities. The regional office
in Mosul is now fully operational at its temporary headquarters.
Plans for a regional office in - at Basra are being developed.
Our Hercules L-100 aircraft
continues to operate routine flights between Baghdad and Larnaca.
The eight helicopters are fully operational. With the resolution
of the problems raised by Iraq for the transportation of minders
into the no-fly zones, our mobility in these zones has improved.
We expect to increase utilisation of the helicopters.
The number of Iraqi minders during
inspections has often reached a ratio - had also reached a ratio
as high as five per inspectors. During the talks in January in
Baghdad, the Iraqi side agreed to keep the ratio to about one to
one. The situation has improved.
Since we arrived in Iraq, we have
conducted more than 400 inspections covering more than 300 sites.
All inspections were performed without notice, and access was
almost always provided promptly. In no case have we been - seen
convincing evidence that the Iraqi side knew in advance that the
inspectors were coming.
The inspections have taken place
throughout Iraq at industrial sites, ammunition depots, research
centers, universities, presidential sites, mobile laboratories,
private houses, missile production facilities, military camps and
agricultural sites.
At all sites which had been
inspected before 1998, rebase lining activities were performed.
This included the identification of the function and contents of
each building, new or old, at a site. It also included
verification of previously tagged equipment, application of seals
and tags, taking samples, and discussions with the site's
personnel regarding past and present activities. At certain sites,
ground-penetrating radar was used to look for underground
structures or buried equipment.
Through the inspections conducted
so far, we have obtained a good knowledge of the industrial and
scientific landscape of Iraq, as well as of its missile
capability. But as before, we do not know every cave and corner.
Inspections are effectively helping to bridge the gap in knowledge
that arose due to the absence of inspections between December 1998
and November 2002.
More than 200 chemical and more
than 100 biological samples have been collected at different
sites. Three-quarters of these have been screened, using our own
analytical laboratory capabilities at the Baghdad center. The
results to date have been consistent with Iraqi declarations.
In the current situation, one
would expect Iraq to be eager to comply.
While we were in Baghdad, we met a
delegation from the government of South Africa. It was there to
explain how South Africa gained the confidence of the world in its
dismantling of the nuclear weapons program by a wholehearted
cooperation over two years with IAEA inspectors. I have just
learned that Iraq has accepted an offer by South Africa to send a
group of experts for further talks.
How much, if any, is left of
Iraq's weapons of mass destruction and related proscribed items
and programs? So far, UNMOVIC has not found any such weapons, only
a small number of empty chemical munitions which should have been
declared and destroyed.
Another matter, and one of great
significance, is that many proscribed weapons and items are not
accounted for.
We are fully aware that many
governmental intelligence organizations are convinced and assert
that proscribed weapons, items and programs continue to exist. The
US secretary of state presented material in support of this
conclusion.
Governments have many sources of
information that are not available to inspectors. The inspectors,
for their part, must base their reports only on the evidence which
they can themselves examine and present publicly. Without
evidence, confidence cannot arise.
Mr President, in my earlier
briefings, I have noted that significant outstanding issues of
substance were listed in two Security Council documents from early
1999 and should be well known to Iraq.
I referred, as examples, to the
issues of anthrax, the nerve agent VX, and long-range missiles,
and said that such issues-and I quote myself-"deserve to be
taken seriously by Iraq rather than being brushed aside,"
unquote.
The declaration submitted by Iraq
on the 7th of December last year, despite its large volume, missed
the opportunity to provide the fresh material and evidence needed
to respond to the open questions.
This is perhaps the most important
problem we are facing. Although I can understand that it may not
be easy for Iraq in all cases to provide the evidence needed, it
is not the task of the inspectors to find it. Iraq itself must
squarely tackle this task and avoid belittling the questions.
In my January update to the
Council I referred to the Al-Samud II and the Al-Fatah missiles,
reconstituted casting chambers, construction of a missile engine
test stand and the import of rocket engines, which were all
declared to UNMOVIC by Iraq.
I noted that the Al-Samud II and
the Al-Fatah could very well represent prima facie cases of
proscribed missile systems, as they had been tested to ranges
exceeding the 150-kilometers limit set by the Security Council.
I also noted that Iraq had been
requested to cease flight test of these missiles until UNMOVIC
completed a technical review.
Earlier this week, UNMOVIC missile
experts met for two days with experts from a number of member
states to discuss these items. The experts concluded unanimously
that, based on the data provided by Iraq, the two declared
variants of the Al-Samud II missile were capable of exceeding 150
kilometers in range. This missile system is therefore proscribed
for Iraq pursuant to Resolution 687 and the monitoring plan
adopted by Resolution 715.
As for the Al-Fatah, the experts
found that clarification of the missile data supplied by Iraq was
required before the capability of the missile system could be
fully assessed.
With respect to the casting
chambers, I note the following. UNSCOM ordered and supervised the
destruction of the casting chambers, which had been intended for
use in the production of the proscribed Bader (ph) 2000 missile
system. Iraq has declared that it has reconstituted these
chambers. The experts have confirmed that the reconstituted
casting chambers could still be used to produce motors for
missiles capable of ranges significantly greater than 150
kilometers. Accordingly, these chambers remain proscribed.
The expert also studied the data
on the missile engine test stand that is nearing completion and
have assessed it to be capable of testing missile engines with
thrusts greater than that of the SA-2 engine. So far the test
stand has not been associated with the proscribed activity.
On the matter of the 380 SA-2
missile engines imported outside of the export-import mechanism
and in contravention of paragraph 24 of Resolution 687, UNMOVIC
inspectors were informed by Iraq during an official briefing that
these engines were intended for use in the Al-Samud II missile
system, which has now been assessed to be proscribed. Any such
engines configured for use in this missile system would also be
proscribed. I intend to communicate these findings to the
government of Iraq.
At the meeting in Baghdad on the
8th and the 9th, February, the Iraqi side addressed some of the
important outstanding disarmament issues and gave us a number of
papers-for instance, regarding anthrax and growth material, the
nerve agent VX and missile production.
Experts who were present from our
side studied the papers during the evening of 8th of February and
met with Iraqi experts in the morning of February 9 for further
clarifications.
Although no new evidence was
provided in the papers and no open issues were closed through them
or the expert discussions, the presentation of the papers could be
indicative of a more active attitude focusing on the important
open issues.
The Iraqi side suggested that the
problem of verifying the quantities of anthrax and two VX
precursors, which had been declared unilaterally destroyed, might
be tackled through certain technical and analytical methods.
Although our experts are still assessing the suggestions, they are
not very hopeful that it could prove possible to assess the
quantities of material poured into the grounds years ago.
Documentary evidence and testimony by staff that dealt with the
items still appears to be needed.
Not least against this background,
a letter of the 12th of February from Iraq's National and
Monitoring Directorate may be irrelevant. It presents a list of 83
names of participants, I quote, "in the unilateral
destruction in the chemical field which took place in the summer
of 1991," unquote.
As the absence of adequate
evidence of that destruction has been and remains an important
reason why quantities of chemicals had been deemed unaccounted
for, the presentation of a list of persons who can be interviewed
about the actions appears useful and pertains to cooperation on
substance.
The expert also studied the data
on the missile engine test stand that is nearing completion and
had assessed it to be capable of testing missile engines with
thrusts greater than that of the SA-2 engine. So far the test
stand has not been associated with a proscribed activity.
On the matter of the 380 SA-2
missile engines imported outside of the export-import mechanism,
and in contravention of Paragraph 24 of Resolution 687, UNMOVIC
inspectors were informed by Iraq during an official briefing that
these engines were intended for use in the Al- Samoud 2 missile
system, which has now been assessed to be proscribed. Any such
engines configured for use in this missile system would also be
proscribed. I intend to communicate these findings to the
government of Iraq.
At the meeting in Baghdad on the
8th and the 9th of February, the Iraqi side addressed some of the
important outstanding disarmament issues and gave us a number of
papers; for instance, regarding anthrax and growth material, the
nerve agent VX, and missile production. Experts who were present
from our side studied the papers during the evening of 8th of
February and met with Iraqi experts in the morning of 9 February
for further clarifications. Although no new evidence was provided
in the papers and no open issues were closed through them or the
expert discussions, the presentation of the papers could be
indicative of a more active attitude focusing on the important
open issues.
The Iraqi side suggested that the
problem of verifying the quantities of anthrax and two VX
precursors, which had been declared unilaterally destroyed, might
be tackled through certain technical and analytical methods.
Although our experts are still assessing the suggestions, they are
not very hopeful that it could prove possible to assess the
quantities of material poured into the grounds years ago.
Documentary evidence and testimony by the staff that dealt with
the items still appears to be needed.
Not least, against this
background, a letter on the 12th of February from Iraq's National
Monitoring Directorate may be of relevance. It presents a list of
83 names of participants, I quote, "in the unilateral
destruction in the chemical field which took place in the summer
of 1991." Unquote. As the absence of adequate evidence of
that destruction has been and remains an important reason why
quantities of chemicals had been deemed unaccounted for, the
presentation of a list of persons who can be interviewed about the
actions appears useful and pertains to cooperation on substance. I
trust that the Iraqi side will put together a similar list of
names of persons who participated in the unilateral destruction of
other proscribed items, notably in the biological field.
The Iraqi side also informed us
that the commission which had been appointed in the wake of our
finding 12 empty chemical weapons warheads had its mandate
expanded to look for any still existing proscribed items. This was
welcomed. A second commission, we learned, has now been appointed
with a task of searching all over Iraq for more documents relevant
to the elimination of proscribed items and programs. It is headed
by the former minister of Oil, General Amer Rashid, and is to have
very extensive powers of search in industry, administration, and
even private houses.
These interviews proved
informative. No further interviews have since been accepted on our
terms. I hope this will change. We feel that interviews conducted
with (sic) any third party present and without tape recording
would provide the greatest credibility.
At the recent meeting in Baghdad,
as on several earlier occasions, my colleague Dr. ElBaradei and I
had urged the Iraqi side to enact legislation implementing the UN
prohibitions regarding weapons of mass destruction. This morning
we had a message that a presidential decree has now been issued
containing prohibitions with regard to importation and production
of biological, chemical and nuclear weapons. We have not yet had
time to study the details of the text of the decree.
Mr President, I should like to
make some comments on the role of intelligence in connection with
inspections in Iraq. A credible inspection regime requires that
Iraq provide full cooperation on process, granting immediate
access everywhere to inspectors; and on substance, providing full
declarations supported by relevant information and material and
evidence. However, with the closed society in Iraq of today and
the history of inspections there, other sources of information,
such as defectors and government intelligence agencies, are
required to aid the inspection process.
I remember myself how in the 1991,
several inspections in Iraq, which were based on the information
received from a government, helped to disclose important parts of
the nuclear weapon program. It was realized that an international
organization authorised to perform inspections anywhere on the
ground could make good use of the information obtained from
governments, with eyes in the sky, ears in the ether, access to
defectors and both eyes and ears on the market for weapons-related
material. It was understood that the information residing in the
intelligence services government could come to very active use in
the international effort to prevent proliferation of weapons of
mass destruction. This remains true, and we have by now a good
deal of experience in the matter.
International organizations need
to analyze such information critically and especially benefit when
it comes from more than one source. The intelligence agencies, for
their part, must protect their sources and methods. Those who
provide such information must know that it will be kept in strict
confidence and be known to very few people.
UNMOVIC has achieved good working
relations with intelligence agencies, and the amount of
information provided has been gradually increasing. However, we
must recognize that there are limitations, that misinterpretations
can occur.
Intelligence information has been
useful for UNMOVIC. In one case, it led us to a private home where
documents mainly relating to laser enrichment of uranium were
found. In other cases, intelligence has led to sites where no
proscribed items were found. Even in such cases, however,
inspection of these sites were useful in proving the absence of
such items and in some cases, the presence of other items,
conventional munitions. It showed that conventional arms are being
moved around the country and that movements are not necessarily
related to weapons of mass destruction.
The presentation of intelligence
information by the US secretary of State suggested that Iraq had
prepared for inspections by cleaning up sites and removing
evidence of proscribed weapons programs. I would like to comment
only on one case which we are familiar with, namely, the trucks
identified by analysts as being for chemical decontamination at
the munitions depot. This was a declared site, and it was
certainly one of the sites Iraq would have expected to be to
inspect - us to inspect. We have noted that the two satellite
images of the site were taken several weeks apart.
Yesterday UNMOVIC informed the
Iraqi authorities of its intention to start the U-2 surveillance
aircraft early next week, under arrangements similar to those
UNSCOM had followed. We are also in the process of working out
modalities for the use of the French Mirage aircraft, starting
late next week, and for the Drones supplied by the German
government. The offer from Russia of an Antonov aircraft with
night vision capabilities is a welcome one and is next on our
agenda for further improving UNMOVIC's and IAEA's technical
capabilities. These developments are in line with suggestions made
in a "non-paper" recently circulated by France
suggesting a further strengthening of the inspection capabilities.
It is our intention to examine the
possibilities for surveying ground movements, notably trucks. In
the face of persistent intelligence reports - for instance, about
mobile biological-weapons production units - such measures could
well increase the effectiveness of inspections.
UNMOVIC is still expanding its
capabilities, both in terms of numbers of staff and technical
resources. On my way to the recent Baghdad meeting, I stopped in
Vienna to meet 60 experts who just completed our general training
course for inspectors. They came from 22 countries, including Arab
countries.
Mr President, UNMOVIC is not
infrequently asked how much more time it needs to complete its
task in Iraq. The answer depends upon which task one has in mind:
the elimination of weapons of mass destruction and related items
and programs, which were prohibited in 1991; the disarmament task;
or the monitoring that no new proscribed activities occur.
The latter task, though not often
focused upon, is highly significant and not controversial. It will
require monitoring, which is ongoing - that is, open-ended - until
the council decides otherwise.
By contrast, the task for
disarmament foreseen in Resolution 687 and the progress on key
remaining disarmament tasks, foreseen in Resolution 1284, as well
as the disarmament obligations, which Iraq was given a final
opportunity to comply with under Resolution 1441, were always
required to be fulfilled in a shorter time span.
Regrettably, the high degree of
cooperation required of Iraq for disarmament through inspection
was not forthcoming in 1991.
Despite the elimination under
UNSCOM and the IAEA supervision of large amounts of weapons,
weapons-related items and installations over the years, the task
remained incomplete when inspectors were withdrawn almost eight
years later, at the end of 1998.
If Iraq has provided the necessary
cooperation in 1991, the phase of disarmament under Resolution 687
could have been short and a decade of sanctions could have been
avoided. Today, three months after the adoption of Resolution
1441, the period of disarmament through inspection could still be
short if, I quote, "immediate, active and unconditional
cooperation," unquote, with UNMOVIC and the IAEA were to be
forthcoming.
Thank you, Mr President. |