Yemen's Houthi war 'is over'

After six months, the latest round in Yemen's pointless war with the Houthi rebels is officially over. An agreed ceasefire was declared at midnight on Thursday.

But a ceasefire is not the same as lasting peace. It doesn't mean the Yemeni government can sit back and do nothing (as is likely to happen) once the fighting has stopped. The important thing is to tackle the problems that could lead to a recurrence.

The International Crisis Group, in a report last May, suggested a number of peace-building measures (pages 25-28) which should be implemented, along with others, as soon as possible. They include: 

Bridging the sectarian gap: The portrayal of Huthi militants, both in the media and official discourse, as agents of a wider Shiite conspiracy to take over the country is largely unfounded and – in the context of deepening regional sectarian polarisation – dangerous. Instead, the state should renew efforts undertaken by the republic in the late 1960s to more systematically integrate Zaydis and Hashemites into the political system. It also should discourage media outlets from fanning social or religious prejudice. Finally, it ought to take steps to ensure representation of Hashemites and Zaydi revivalist figures in higher government and ruling party circles.

Although Zaydi revivalist fears of Salafi or Wahhabi attempts to eradicate them are exaggerated, they contain a kernel of truth and have led to a self-defence reflex. For the state, the appropriate response should be not exclusion and repression but accommodation and inclusion ...

Reintegrating the Houthis into politics: Five years into the conflict, it remains difficult to identify the rebels’ objectives. Huthi leaders never spelled them out clearly, often limiting themselves to rejecting government claims. Failure to articulate a coherent political platform has encouraged rumours of secret political and sectarian projects as well as of foreign manipulation. If they are to facilitate resolution of this conflict, the rebels will have to cogently list their grievances – Saada’s underdevelopment and exclusion; stigmatisation of Zaydi and Hashemite identities; detention and disappearance of Huthi fighters and allied political figures and intellectuals; and governmental failure to fully compensate war victims – and demands.

More broadly, a key to lasting peace likely will be the Huthi movement’s normalisation as a political party, a Zaydi revivalist religious-cultural movement, or both ...

Encouraging civil society initiatives: Muted reactions from civil society, the opposition and media have been an important and unfortunate feature of the Saada war from the start. Criticism and in-depth analysis of the belligerents’ actions have remained rare, in part due to the information vacuum, in part due to fear of state repression ...

[Public debate holds] a key to improving public information, debunking myths on both sides and building confidence between belligerents by establishing forums for open expression and debate. Local, non-affiliated organisations also could help provide credible assessments of destruction and casualties and assist in reconstruction projects, thus enhancing their credibility in rebel and international eyes.

A new international role: International efforts essentially have been of two types: regional intervention (at times well-intentioned but unable to solve the conflict) and humanitarian (chiefly by UN agencies and international humanitarian organisations).

A more positive, political and proactive international role is important. This will require a change in outlook on the nature of the war ... Donor countries should hold out the promise of long-term development aid to neglected regions such as Saada as an incentive to end the war.
How aid is structured also matters. Support should be allocated to specific reconstruction projects jointly identified by the government, rebels and members of civil society ...

Longer-term development could be supported by incentives for private investment, notably in the labourintensive agricultural sector ...

Posted by Brian Whitaker, 12 February 2010.