According to numerous reports yesterday, the initial tip about the "parcel bombs" plot came from Jabr al-Faifi, who was released from Guantanamo five years ago for "rehabilitation" in Saudi Arabia but then "escaped" to Yemen and joined al-Qaeda there.

Later, Faifi reportedly became disillusioned with al-Qaeda, handed himself in to the Yemeni authorities in Abyan province on September 9 and was transferred to Saudi Arabia. 

However, this may not be true because al-Qaeda had already issued a statement on September 4 announcing his arrest. Perhaps, also, we should not discount the possibility that Faifi's "escape" to Yemen and his subsequent arrest/surrender were staged, and that he had been sent there by the Saudis to spy on al-Qaeda.

Either way, Faifi has clearly been in Saudi hands since early September. This raises questions about how much Faifi could have known, so far in advance, about the parcels plot and, as the Waq al-Waq blog wonders, if he did know about it, why al-Qaeda didn't abandon the plan on the grounds that it had probably been compromised.

Another snippet of news points to a possible answer: there was a "dry run" with innocent packages to Chicago in September. These were intercepted by US intelligence but allowed to continue to their destination. Presumably this reassured al-Qaeda that the method was working and that its plans had not been compromised.

It's plausible, therefore, that Faifi did give general information about al-Qaeda's intentions and perhaps about the dry run.

The more specific tip about last week's bombs, though, seems to have come from a different Saudi source. According to ABC News, it was not until last Thursday night that Saudi intelligence provided the US with tracking numbers for the explosive parcels (which by then were already on their way).

Some interesting details have emerged about the addresses on the packages sent last week. The New York Times reports:

An American official said that the addresses on the packages were outdated addresses for Jewish institutions in Chicago. But in place of the names of the institutions, the packages bore the names of historical figures from the Crusades and the Spanish Inquisition, the official said. The addresses are one reason that investigators now believe the plan may have been to blow up the planes, since there were no longer synagogues at the Chicago locations.

Yesterday, Britain announced that it will not be allowing unaccompanied cargo from Yemen and Somalia, while Germany announced it is suspending all passenger flights from Yemen. Along with the US, Canada, the Netherlands and France have also suspended cargo flights.

Meanwhile, CNN says the US Transportation Security Administration is expected to establish a "long-term presence" in Yemen: "In addition to providing more equipment and coaching of Yemeni authorities on how to screen cargo, the U.S. personnel will also be working with the Yemen's interior ministry to vet new hires."

Regarding gaps in Yemen's cargo and passenger security system, CNN adds:

These gaps are related less to technology and more about corruption and capacity within the Yemeni government, officials said.

"It's not just about people and cargo," one official said. "You can have all the X-ray machines you want, but if someone is paid to turn the machine off at the right time, that doesn't do one bit of good."

Posted by Brian Whitaker, 2 November 2010