Syria finally agreed to the Arab League's "reconciliation" initiative on Monday. The fact that President Assad delegated the task of signing it to his deputy foreign minister, and that this happened on a day that brought the largest number of deaths since the uprising began – 114 according to latest reports – speaks volumes about the regime's attitude.

Key points of the plan are that Syria will (1) allow Arab monitors into the country, (2) withdraw the army from towns, (3) release political prisoners and (4) start a dialogue with the opposition. 

It is unlikely that much of this will actually happen. In the meantime, by accepting the deal, the regime has got the Arab League off its back, removing (temporarily at the very least) any threat of tougher action – and all at very little cost to itself. As Ammar Abdulhamid notes on his blog, "The signing will give Assad [a] few more weeks during which he can continue to kill with impunity."

The immediate issue now is the monitors. The current plan is to send them to Syria for a month (previously it was to be two months) though the period can be extended for a further month if both sides agree (which is improbable).

There is ample scope here for the Assad regime to argue and prevaricate – just as Saddam Hussein did earlier with the UN weapons inspectors.

According to the Syrian foreign minister, the observers will be "free" in their movements but "under the protection of the Syrian government" – which on past experience of the regime's idea of "protection" doesn't bode well at all.

Abdulhamid also foresees a Syrian attempt to sabotage the observers' mission by muddying the waters of their eventual report:

"Should the Assads succeed in seeding the group with monitors from Algeria, Sudan, Iraq and Lebanon, as some expect them to, then we can all expect a highly conflicted report to emerge in a month time that will reflect the ideological divides within the Arab League. The AL can then be relied upon, as always, to find new ways to stall, dither and waste time. Meanwhile, the killing will continue, and the situation on the ground will worsen."

Posted by Brian Whitaker, 20 December 2011