IRI pre-election assessment, January 1993
by the International Republican Institute
1. Introduction
2. The Unification Process and 1993 Elections
4. Political Analysis of the Election Process
5. Synopsis of the Electoral Law and Electoral Administration
6. Conclusions for 1993 National Elections
7. Conclusions for Democratic Development in Yemen
1. Introduction
The tumultuous history of the Arab world has, until recently, provided a thoroughly inhospitable environment for the growth of liberal democracy. This inclination toward authoritarian rule has been attributed to cultural, geographic, religious, ethnic, colonial, and many other factors. With the multitude of differences between the "Arab world" and the "Western world" (where most of the analysts have come from), it has been all but impossible to point to a single factor or combination of factors which have been the clear impediments to democratic reform. Suffice it to say that free, competitive, electoral democracy has been a rarity in the Arab world and that a large number of analysts have considered its likelihood and viability to be close to negligible.
However, over the last several years, democratic liberalization has made significant inroads in the Arab world. The Kingdom of Jordan has held elections for its Parliament and legalized political parties. Although aborted at the last instant, Algeria held local and national elections with open and vociferous freedom of speech and assembly. In October 1992, Kuwait held highly competitive elections to its National Assembly which had been suspended since 1986. The Sultanate of Oman and the Kingdom of Morocco have both made clear, although halting, steps toward political liberalization. By no means a sweeping regional democratic revolution and with the recognition that democratic governance in each of these countries remains incomplete or seriously flawed, it is still evident that the legitimacy and the practice of liberal democracy is growing in the Arab world.
In what many observers see as one of the most unlikely and surprising examples of this democratic development, the former countries of the Yemen Arab Republic (YAR) and the People's Democratic Republic of Yemen (PDRY) agreed on May 22, 1990 to unify and become a democratic state in which "the people of Yemen are the source of legitimacy and power, which they exercise directly through referendums and elections." While the sentiment and movement for unification is not new, the actual realization of unity after several hundred years of de facto separation is momentous. The fact that this unification is taking place in conjunction with rapid and fundamental political liberalization is nothing short of astonishing.
Yemen, a country which has been described as closer to the twelfth century than the twentieth, is arguably the last place one would expect to witness rapid democratization. Resoundingly defying expectations, the people of Yemen have adjusted quickly to a more open political system. More than forty political parties and over seventy newspapers have registered, while men spend virtually every afternoon chewing qat and talking politics.
To be certain, democracy in Yemen has a long road ahead and many obstacles facing it in almost every regard. A basic understanding of democracy and the associated rights and responsibilities is generally lacking; violence is still often the preferred method of dealing with differences of opinion and rivals, be they political or otherwise; civic and political institutions are rudimentary and ill-defined; several groups, religious and otherwise, are developing their own "unconventional" interpretations of democracy and individual rights; etc. In that the national elections scheduled for April 27th, 1993 will be the first attempt at a democratic election in Yemen, the current status of democratic development is understandable. What remains impressive is the progress to date, and the potential for long-term development.
