IRI pre-election assessment, January 1993
by the International Republican Institute
1. Introduction
2. The Unification Process and 1993 Elections
4. Political Analysis of the Election Process
5. Synopsis of the Electoral Law and Electoral Administration
6. Conclusions for 1993 National Elections
7. Conclusions for Democratic Development in Yemen
2. The unification process and the 1993 elections
The Republic of Yemen was established on May 22, 1990, with the merger of the Yemen Arab Republic (North Yemen) with the Marxist-dominated People's Democratic Republic of Yemen (South Yemen). The May 1990 unification marked the first time in its history that Yemen is a sovereign political entity under one central power.
North Yemen was a part of the Ottoman Empire until the Ottoman defeat in World War I. At that time, North Yemen became a kingdom ruled by the Imam Yahya, the leader of the largest religious community in North Yemen, the Zaidis. During the next 40 years, the Imam's family rule was briefly interrupted with the assassination of the Imam Yahya and a short rebellion that followed. The rebellion was put down by the Imam's son, Ahmed, who then became Imam and remained ruler of the kingdom until his death in 1962. With his death, his son, Muhammad, was declared Imam and installed as leader of North Yemen. Within a week, he was deposed by a military coup led by Colonel Abdullah al-Sallal, and the Yemen Arab Republic (YAR) was declared. However, in 1967, President Sallal was ousted by rebel forces and a Republican Council assumed power.
While the North was grappling with the growing pains of independence, the South continued as it had since the end of Ottoman rule - a combination of a British colony and a Saudi Arabian protectorate. Rebellion first began in the middle 1960s with two groups, the National Liberation Front (NLF), and the Front for the Liberation of Occupied South Yemen (FLOSY). After the departure of the British in 1967 the two groups took the forefront in attempts to gain control of South Yemen. The Marxist NLF eventually won and declared the People's Republic of Southern Yemen. On the third anniversary of independence, the name of the country was changed to the People's Democratic Republic of Yemen (PDRY) and Ali Nasser Muhammad was named Prime Minister. Massive repression of dissidents began soon after Mr. Muhammad took office, which forced many to flee north to the YAR, beginning the first of many waves of refugees from South to North. Relations between the two sovereign countries were strained from the start. Spurred by the constant flow of refugees over the next few years, intermittent fighting along the border erupted into full-scale war between the two Yemens in October of 1972. The Arab League negotiated a cease-fire later in the month, with the most important provision being full unification of the two Yemens within 18 months.
However, this was not to be, as another change in power took place in the North in 1974, prompting a decade of instability and a constantly changing government leadership. Relations between the two Yemens disintegrated again during that period, when a PDRY envoy, visiting Sana'a to discuss unification, assassinated the President of the YAR with a bomb in his briefcase. The fallout of the assassination saw a new government in both countries, a pro-Saudi government in the YAR, led by General Ali Abdullah Saleh, and a hard-line communist government in the PDRY, lead by the United Political Organization National Front (UPO-NF) and the rejuvenated Ali Nasser Muhammad.
Renewed fighting broke out between the YAR and the PDRY in early 1979, when disaffected members of the ruling party in the YAR crossed the Yemeni border, formed the National Democratic Front (NDF), gained the support of the PDRY, and began a revolt against the YAR government. Once again the Arab League stepped in to negotiate a cease-fire and to reaffirm the region's commitment to the idea of a united Yemen. The cease-fire allowed time for a joint constitution to be drafted and signed in December of 1981. Also, a joint YAR/PDRY Yemen Council was established to monitor progress toward unification. Unfortunately, shortly after these agreements were set in place, NDF forces rebelled again and after they were forced into the PDRY and give safe haven, relations again became strained. However, a renewed peace between the two countries emerged during the next few years and negotiations slowly continued concerning unification.
On January 13, 1986, PDRY President Muhammad, after a weakening of his power, tried to eliminate several of his political opponents by ordering his guards to open fire on them at a meeting which he had called. The outrage was so great that Muhammad was ousted and the government fell into chaos, as the forces of the deposed president and two rival factions fought for control of the country. On January 24, 1986, Haidar Abu Bakr al-Attas was named head of the interim administration and was formally recognized by the Soviet Union as the leader of the PDRY. A new government was formed in February 1987 and Al-Attas was confirmed as President, Chairman of the Presidium of the Supreme People's Council, and Secretary-General of the Yemen Socialist Party's Politurbo. General amnesty was declared for all those fighting against the government and Muhammad was given the death penalty in absentia for his part in the attempted overthrow of the government of the PDRY. One of the first steps Al-Attas took as the new leader of the PDRY was to reaffirm his and the PDRY's commitment to unification.
In July 1988, the first general election took place in the YAR for 128 of the 159 seats in the newly created Consultative Council, which was to replace the Constituent People's Assembly. Those seats not up for election would be filled by presidential appointment. More than 1,200 candidates ran for the available seats and over one million people voted in the election. President Saleh was reelected by the Consultative Council with a 96 percent approval rating. The Islamic fundamentalist opposition party won just under one fourth of the total seats available in the Consultative Council.
Using the YAR/PDRY Yemen Council, established in 1981, as a proving ground for ideas, both sides began real movement toward unification in May 1988. Their first agreement, made after the refugees of the 1986 civil war had fled into the YAR, was repatriation of the refugees. The YAR and the PDRY used this resolution of the refugee problem as a stepping stone to broader agreements, the first of which was a removal of all troops from the border and the demilitarization of the area. The next step was a joint declaration of cooperation in development of oil exploration and production in disputed border territories. In June 1989, direct telephone lines between the two Yemens were established and in November, travel restrictions for PDRY citizens were rescinded. During this time the PDRY committed itself to economic and political reform, moving their economy from a centralized command economy toward a free market economy. In December 1989, a draft constitution was signed by President Saleh and Secretary-General of the Central Committee of the YSP, Ali Salim al-Baid, declaring that with the approval of the two Assemblies and the support of the people in a referendum, the two Yemens would be united within a year's time. The transitional structure was to be as follows: a five member Presidential Council, the capital to be in Sana'a, the deputies to the legislature were to be elected every four years, universal suffrage was granted to all adult men and women, and political parties and trade unions would be allowed to operate freely.
The movement toward unification was not without difficulty. Yemen is a country of 13 million people whose loyalties throughout history have gone to family and tribe instead of an abstract concept of the state. Nonetheless, in early May 1990, the military of each country was officially dissolved and the soldiers were withdrawn from their respective capitals until full unification, after which they would be united as the army of the Republic of Yemen. Laws to promote and protect the freedom of the press were announced in mid-May. Finally, on May 22, 1990, the Yemenis' sense of nationhood overcame their individualism when the Yemen Arab Republic and the People's Democratic Republic of Yemen were officially declared unified as the Republic of Yemen.
Following the finalization of the unification agreement, the Joint Committee for Unified Political Organizations developed and approved a plan for a multiparty political system to be established in the Republic. The members of the Committee met with the top leaders of both Yemens and proposed their plan. It was accepted and, with the mandate from the government, the Committee opened a dialogue with all national political forces to work out a schedule for implementation. The basis of the new system was democracy and pluralism, supported by freedom of speech, assembly, and organization. By September 1990, over thirty new political parties had been formed in the Republic of Yemen.
Just as the unification process was gaining momentum and the Republic was gaining support from its Arab neighbors and respect from the rest of the world, Iraq invaded Kuwait, throwing Yemen into an international political and economic tailspin. The invasion put Yemen's two benefactors, Saudi Arabia and Iraq, on opposite sides of the conflict, forcing Yemen to choose between them. An added burden to the Yemeni position was the Republic's seat on the United Nations Security Council, assuring that the Republic would have to take a very public stand on the issue. Yemen adopted a "compromise" position in condemning Iraq's invasion of Kuwait, while adamantly opposing the use of force (particularly by Western militaries) to liberate Kuwait. Yemen's conciliatory position toward Iraq cost them dearly in economic terms. The important trade and financial relationship between Iraq and Yemen was devastated by the sanctions. At the same time, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states expelled thousands of Yemeni guest workers, thus stopping the substantial income from remittances and heavily burdening the social services capacity of the Yemeni government. In addition, the United States and other donor countries cut virtually all economic aid to Yemen.
After the fallout following the end of the Gulf War, the national referendum on the new constitution was held in the midst of considerable pomp and circumstance in May 1991. The constitution was approved by an overwhelming majority. The victory was a legitimizing factor to the Yemeni government, which was eager to prove to the world that it was committed to democracy. Unfortunately, less than half of the eligible voters voted, either out of apathy or due to participation in a boycott of the referendum sponsored by the Islamic fundamentalist movement and other conservatives who were demanding changes in the constitution. The opposition to the constitution and, in essence to unification itself, became strongest right before and after the referendum. It continued at a much lower level after the vote, having lost its principal issue.
Two years and eight months after unification, problems still persist within the government of the Republic of Yemen. The government still has divisions that run between north and south and tribal feuds have moved from the battlefield to the assembly hall. Legislation is often deadlocked and the government bureaucracy is held hostage to interpersonal conflicts and the lack of institutional capabilities.
President Saleh seems to have a strong grip on power and a clear mandate from the people, as witnessed in the referendum vote, to withstand the challenges facing the Republic of Yemen leading up to and following the April elections. Saleh has built a strong inter-tribal network of support. The future of Saleh, as well as the future of Yemen as a democratic state, rests to a great extent on the future of economic prosperity through increased oil production and the return of workers to Saudi Arabia. In the short term however, the most important factor in holding the country together and moving onward following the April election will be the depth of grassroots commitment to unification as evidenced by wide participation in the electoral process.
