IRI pre-election assessment, January 1993
by the International Republican Institute
1. Introduction
2. The Unification Process and 1993 Elections
4. Political Analysis of the Election Process
5. Synopsis of the Electoral Law and Electoral Administration
6. Conclusions for 1993 National Elections
7. Conclusions for Democratic Development in Yemen
6. Conclusions for 1993 National Elections
On April 27, 1993, the people of the Republic of Yemen will have their second opportunity to express nationwide popular support for the unification of the former YAR and PDRY. The first event of this nature, the May 1991 national referendum on the draft Constitution, demonstrated symbolic popular support for unification itself. The upcoming election will further legitimize the unification through popular participation as well as finalize the formal process itself. In this regard, the most important role of the election process underway will be its impact on stability in Yemen and the continuation of the unification process.
Insofar as the election is carried out in an atmosphere of openness, is free of intimidation, conforms with basic international standards of democratic practice, and the general population is engaged in the political process, this election process will contribute to the establishment and development of a democratic system of government in Yemen. Specifically, the current campaign process will impact four aspects of democratic development:
-
The development of viable, democratic political parties and institutions. While most of the parties which have arisen are neither clearly viable nor democratic, several of the stronger parties are learning and incorporating a more democratic methodology and the less viable parties will not be able to survive in the highly competitive environment which has developed.
-
The growth of a Yemeni civil society. In that the openly competitive aspect of multiparty elections is largely alien to Yemen's socio-political history, the society as well as the political community are unaccustomed to the effects and modalities of the campaign process. This election will provide the population with an important opportunity to witness and build an understanding of how "democracy" fits into Yemen's distinct socio-political culture, particularly in practical terms.
-
The creation and conceptualization of an empowered, activist legislature. The campaign process itself will encourage expectations from those individuals and parties which are elected, thus pressuring the elected legislature to play a greater truly legislative role than in the past. In that one important characteristic of Yemeni politics is that it is highly localized, elected legislators will be expected to be much more directly representative than ideological or policy-oriented.
-
The beginning of acceptance of peaceful, orderly, and legitimate transfer or sharing of power. Through the pre-election negotiation process as well as through the election itself, there is a growing awareness and understanding that political power in a democracy is based on the relative popular support for organizations and individuals as opposed to military, traditional, ideological, or other sources of power.
In these ways, the election process, while compromised in several distinct ways, can still contribute to Yemen's democratization.
One aspect which should be noted for its impact on the democratic process is the role which violence will likely play in the campaign and the election. Because of the strength of traditional, tribal standards of conduct and conflict-resolution, many of the parties look to violence as an effective tool in the political process. Furthermore, for those groups which do not fully support or understand the democratic process, violence is an effective weapon to be used to destabilize the process, to consolidate individual power, or to influence the results of the election. There will almost certainly be a rise in political violence in the immediate pre-election period.
Lastly, the international recognition of Yemen's status of liberalization, as embodied or expressed during and following the election, will have an effect on the future development and prioritization of continued progress in democratization. One of the reasons for the choice of a democratic system to replace the authoritarian systems of the former North and South was the demand by Western nations for freedom and individual rights through democratic reform. In the wake of the Gulf War and Yemen's opposition to the U.S.-led coalition, the Yemeni government has highlighted their committment to democratization as a way to rebuild positive relations with Western nations. To the extent that Yemen believes that the international community, Western and Arab alike, supports democratic reform, it will continue to encourage greater liberalization in the future. However, recognition and reward should be kept as separate issues, not to be confused by either Yemen or the international community, so as to reduce or clarify mutual expectations.
