IRI pre-election assessment, January 1993

by the International Republican Institute

Executive summary

1. Introduction

2. The Unification Process and 1993 Elections

3. Political Parties

4. Political Analysis of the Election Process

5. Synopsis of the Electoral Law and Electoral Administration

6. Conclusions for 1993 National Elections

7. Conclusions for Democratic Development in Yemen

7. Conclusions for Democratic Development in Yemen

In the long term, democratic development in Yemen will depend upon the growth of a healthy, diverse economy, greater practical understanding of the rule of law, expanded educational opportunities and capabilities, and the constructive incorporation of traditional tribal values into the framework of a competitive, pluralistic, democratic system of governance. These larger socio-political challenges will all have a direct effect on the pace and direction of democratization. Moreover, these factors are not precursors to democratization as much as they are independent elements which will both benefit from and contribute to democratic development.

The Yemeni economy has already been positively affected by the political liberalization. With the unity agreement and the democratic reforms of 1990, both the north and south agreed to a more open, free market-oriented economy. This, along with the measure of stability afforded by unification, has encouraged foreign investment and entrepreneurship, particularly in the formerly Marxist south. One concrete result of this has been the accelerated development of Yemen's oil reserves, one source of revenue which may significantly alleviate Yemen's recent economic difficulties. The development of a vibrant and economically powerful middle class will, in turn, encourage democratization and more issue-based political debate and competition.

Two additional elements of democratic development which have been identified as a long term obstacle to democratic or economic progress is the overall need for a better general education system in Yemen and, in particular, the lack of understanding of and respect for the rule of law. Without a more literate, educated populace, the voting population will not be able to make informed decisions regarding candidates or parties. This will directly inhibit the potential transformaation from personality-based politics to issue-based politics. The need for a better understanding of the rule of law, and the presumed adherence to the law, stems in part from these educational needs. The lack of understanding of a reliable, coherent legal system will continue to impede democratic political development by degrading the importance of an elected legislature as well as limiting understanding of the legalistic concept of an authoritative electoral process.

Lastly, the cultural factors which will neccessarily define Yemen's democratic development must be reconciled with international norms of democratic practice. Aspects such as the rights of the individual, the full participation of women in society and politics, and tolerance for peaceful competition and debate, all have a direct effect on long-term democratization and are potential areas of conflict between local cultural perceptions and international norms. In this way, several Islamic principles, when interpreted in various ways, may directly inhibit democratic development. Because these interpretations are not universally accepted, Islam itself does not appear to be directly contrary to democratization, but the reconciliation of the two practices (Islam & democracy) will be critical to the future course of democratic development in Yemen.

The process which will develop through the interplay of these differing forms of development will take decades to develop. The interdependence of these factors and the elementary status of each of them makes speculation on their precise future or detailed progression impossible at this time. Suffice it to say that Yemen's political and overall future will be as unique as its history.

List of Meetings

• H.E. Ahmed al-Iryani - Minister of Foreign Affairs, former Prime Minister

• Dr. Husaiyn Ali al-Hubaishi - Member, House of Representatives, former Chairman, Yemeni Constitutional Committee

• Dr. Ahmed al-Kebsi - Chairman, Yemen Political Science Association, Department of Political Science, University of Sana'a

• Dr. Ra'utha Hassan - Independent Political Activist, Department of Communications, University of Sana'a

• Dr. AbdulMalik al-Mutawakkil - Yemeni Organization for Defending Rights and Freedom

• Prof. Abdulaziz al-Saqqaf - Chief Editor, Yemen Times

• Mr. Mohammed al-Mutawakkil - General People's Congress

• Mr. Jarallah Omar - Yemen Socialist Party

• Dr. Ahmed Sharafdy - Hesb al'Hakh; Member, Supreme Electoral Commission

• Mr. Abdullah al-Salem al-Hakimi - Federation of Popular Forces; Member, Supreme Electoral Commission

• Mr. Abdulwahab al-Kebsi - Federation of Popular Forces

• Dr. Hassan Bazarah - League of Yemeni Sons; Member, Supreme Electoral Commission

• Ms. Raq'iah Homaydan - Member, Supreme Electoral Commission, Independent

• Mr. AbdulMalik al-Mikhlafy - Nasserite Popular Unification Organization; Member, Supreme Electoral Commission

• Mr. Jamal al-Muttareb - Private Sector Bloc

• Local Political Party Representatives in Thila

• General People's Congress

• Yemen Socialist Party

• Islah

• Federation of Popular Forces

• U.S. Embassy Personnel - Ambassador Arthur Hughes; Bruce Strathearn (Deputy Chief of Mission); Bart Marcois (U.S. Information Service;) Haynes Mahoney (Cultural Attache)

FOOTNOTES

1. Constitution of the Republic of Yemen as approved by Referendum 15-16 May 1991. Chapter I, Article 4.

2. A very popular, local mild narcotic, chemically similar to caffeine.

3. 1990 UNESCO estimates.

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