Reconciliations
afoot?
by Brian Whitaker
Originally published in Middle East
International, 25 February, 2000
The
Yemeni-Saudi border dispute took a new turn last week when the
United States offered to mediate. "We would be happy to help
... we would like to see this problem solved," Assistant
Secretary of State Edward Walker announced in Sana’a after talks
with President Ali Abdullah Salih.
Walker then flew on to Riyadh
where the Saudi interior minister, Prince Nayef, appeared to
rebuff the offer, saying: "The kingdom is not asking for any
mediation and does not need it." But the prince’s careful
phrasing may have been intended to salvage Saudi pride - it did
not actually rule out the possibility of accepting mediation.
The US has almost certainly
recognised that the border negotiations have reached a crucial
stage where, with some nudging from a third party, they can be
brought to a successful conclusion but, if left to their own
devices, may well meander on for years. The last American
intervention, five years ago, brought the two sides together in a
Memorandum of Understanding which has been the basis for border
discussions ever since.
The Americans, of course, have
their own interests in the region and have hinted that they would
like to move beyond mere border demarcation towards a wide-ranging
settlement which would, as Walker put it, help to maintain
stability and boost economic development.
Interestingly for Yemen, there are
also suggestions that the US envisages a reconciliation between
the Yemeni government and the proscribed opposition group, Mowj,
as part of an overall settlement. Shortly before the American
initiative was announced, Mowj representatives visited the State
Department and met Diana Shelby, head of the Yemen and Oman
section, for talks which they described as "positive and
useful".
Mowj comprises various southern
elements who fought and lost a brief war of secession in 1994,
with backing from the Saudis and a few other countries. Although
the southerners had their own motives for fighting, northern
leaders have long maintained that the Saudis supported the
southern cause as a way of furthering the border dispute by other
means.
After the war, Mowj set up
headquarters in London, where - despite retreating from its
separatist line - it has waged a propaganda campaign against the
Sana’a government. In 1998 the separatist leaders were tried in
their absence on treason charges. Five were sentenced to death but
the Mowj leader, Abd al-Rahman al-Jifri, was merely given a
suspended sentence which left open the possibility of his eventual
return.
Rehabilitation of Mowj would
certainly cause a major shift in the delicate political balance
within Yemen and, at first sight there is no pressing reason why
President Salih would agree to it.
One view is that long-term changes
- particularly democratisation and reforms demanded by outside
agencies such as the World Bank - are forcing the president to
re-structure his power base. Until now, the president’s power
(and also the stability of the country) has been based on a system
of alliances and patronage, often involving subsidies for tribes
and government jobs for their members.
That is still the case, but the
system is becoming more difficult to maintain. The World Bank is
calling for a streamlined civil service where people not only
collect salaries but actually work. And as government finances
become more transparent, payment of informal subsidies to tribes
becomes more difficult.
The president’s new power base,
nominally but not yet in reality, is the people who elected him
with a 96% majority last October. But their continuing support is
not guaranteed, and they will expect something more tangible than
promises before the parliamentary elections next year - which will
mean diverting money from tribal supporters to the general public.
Already there are signs of
deteriorating relations between the president and some of the most
powerful sheikhs, particularly in the north. On the principle that
it is dangerous to have too many enemies at the same time, trouble
in the north is usually a signal for better relations with the
south - so this might, conceivably, be the moment that Mowj and
al-Jifri have been waiting for.
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