In the latest fighting in southern Yemen, a dozen or more soldiers and several civilians were killed during a battle near the marketplace in Lawdar, Abyan province, yesterday.

The ruling party's website blames "terrorist elements from al-Qaeda and some outlaw elements cooperating with them". In other words, the culprits could be al-Qaeda, southern separatists, or both.

There have been several other attacks during the last few days. On Thursday, four soldiers died in clashes with gunmen in Abyan,according to Reuters. Also on Thursday, the "chief investigator" in al-Dhali' was injured by a bomb planted on his vehicle.

Around midnight on Wednesday, a motorbike rider threw a grenadeat a police station in Jaar, Abyan province, seriously injuring five policemen.

Add all this to the list of recent attacks on intelligence officers that I compiled on Tuesday, and there is a clear pattern of harassing – and trying to demoralise – the state's security forces. 

As for who is behind it ... that is a more difficult question. The government has an incentive to blame al-Qaeda (which helps to attract foreign aid, etc) and to smear the separatists by claiming they are in cahoots with al-Qaeda. However, allowing for the fact that al-Qaeda does not actually issue membership cards, this might not be far from the truth.

Al-Qaeda has claimed responsibility for at least some of the attacks, and Abyan, a hotbed of separatism, has long been a centre of jihadist activity too – even before the days of Abu Hamza and the Islamic Army in the late 1990s. Meanwhile, Tariq al-Fadli (of Fadhli), one of the leading southern movement figures, also has jihadist connections going way back.

Posted by Brian Whitaker, 21 August 2010.