A no-fly zone may yet be established in Syria – not imposed by foreign powers but through the efforts of rebel fighters on the ground. Air power is almost the only area of the conflict where the Assad regime still has a clear advantage, and the rebels are now beginning to challenge that.

The rebels have previously shot down helicopters (probably with guns) but now there is growing evidence of surface-to-air missiles being used to attack fighter jets. In the video above, a rebel is shown holding a Russian SA-16 MANPAD.

At the same time, rebels have stepped up their attacks on military bases – capturing more of the regime's anti-aircraft defences for use against its own aircraft.

The EAWorldView blog sees this as part of a strategy:

"The FSA is targeting relatively small anti-aircraft bases, capturing equipment that can be used against the Assad regime, but also looking for ways to confront the Assad airforce. 

"Furthermore, there is a suspicion that they may have received encouragement to specifically target anti-aircraft bases, as this removes a threat to any foreign aircraft that could potentially engage in a no-fly zone."

Meanwhile, the New York Times says the Obama administration hopes the conflict in Syria has "reached a turning point" and is "considering deeper intervention to help push President Bashar al-Assad from power".

Judging by the NYT article, the US doesn't have any new ideas as to what it might actually do but seems worried that it will have little influence over the shape of a post-Assad Syria. Recent diplomatic efforts have gone mainly into trying to restructure the anti-Assad opposition, but now it looks as if that is being overtaken by events on the ground in Syria.

The NYT report continues:

“The administration has figured out that if they don’t start doing something, the war will be over and they won’t have any influence over the combat forces on the ground,” said Jeffrey White, a former Defense Intelligence Agency intelligence officer and specialist on the Syria military. 

“They may have some influence with various political groups and factions, but they won’t have influence with the fighters, and the fighters will control the territory.”

Posted by Brian Whitaker, 29 November 2012.