Coronavirus in the Middle East: spread of infections is slowing down

A further 3,930 Covid-19 infections have been reported in the Middle East and North Africa since yesterday's update – 1,657 of them in Iran and 2,273 in the rest of the region.

Although there's no doubt that the virus is still spreading (and in some countries more than others), figures published over the last few weeks show that in the region as a whole it is spreading more slowly than it was – presumably as a result of lockdowns, curfews and other preventive measures.

While the cumulative total of cases is constantly growing, the increases are becoming smaller. We can see this by comparing each day's cumulative total with the total from a week earlier, and working out the percentage increase. Changes in the percentage are one indication of how fast the virus is spreading.

In Iran, for example, by mid-March the total of reported infections was doubling every seven days (it had previously been rising even faster), but since then the increases have gone down considerably and the latest figure shows only a 23% increase over the previous seven days.

Percentage rise in confirmed cases in Iran. Daily figures over the past month, based on each day's increase over the previous seven days.

There's a similar pattern in the rest of the region, though the infection rate hasn't slowed as much. The latest figure shows a 58% increase in infections over the previous seven days, but the rate of increase is declining.

One important caveat here is that the number of confirmed infections is partly determined by levels of testing. Increased testing generally leads to more cases being detected and artificially raises the infection rate. Conversely, infection rates in some countries can appear low simply because of a lack of testing.

Percentage rise in confirmed cases in the Middle East (excluding Iran). Daily figures over the past month, based on each day's increase over the previous seven days.


New cases

Saudi Arabia has reported the largest number of new cases (429) since yesterday's update, followed by the UAE with 387 and Israel with 357.

The list below shows cumulative totals since the outbreak began, with day-on-day increases in brackets.

Algeria 1,914 (+89)
Bahrain 1,136 (+96)
Egypt 2,065 (+126)
Iraq 1,352 (+34)
Israel 11,235 (+357)
Jordan 389 (+8)
Kuwait 1,300 (+146)
Lebanon 630 (+11)
Libya 25 (-)
Morocco 1,661 (+116)
Oman 727 (+181)
Palestine 288 (+20)
Qatar 2,979 (+251)
Saudi Arabia 4,462 (+429)
Sudan 19 (-)
Syria 25 (-)
Tunisia 707 (+22)
UAE 4,123 (+387)
Yemen 1 (-)

TOTAL: 35,037 (+2,273)

New cases reported in the Middle East (excluding Iran) day by day over the past month


Death toll

Iran reported a further 117 coronavirus-related deaths, bringing the official total to 4,474.

Elsewhere in the region a further 61 deaths were reported – 18 of them in Algeria and 13 in Egypt.

The list below shows totals of reported deaths, with day-on-day increases in brackets.

Algeria 293 (+18)
Bahrain 6 (-)
Egypt 159 (+13)
Iraq 76 (+4)
Israel 110 (+7)
Jordan 7 (-)
Kuwait 2 (+1)
Lebanon 20 (-)
Libya 1 (-)
Morocco 118 (+7)
Oman 4 (+1)
Palestine 2 (-)
Qatar 7 (+1)
Saudi Arabia 57 (+7)
Sudan 2 (-)
Syria 2 (-)
Tunisia 28 (-)
UAE 22 (+2)
Yemen 0 (-)

TOTAL: 918 (+61)

CLICK HERE for previous updates

For anyone interested: A spreadsheet documenting the new coronavirus cases and deaths reported in the region each day can be viewed here.