According to reports circulating yesterday the leaders of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) have "temporarily" decamped from Yemen and re-established their military base across the sea in Somalia.

If true, this is a major development. The Yemen Post, Sahwa.net, the Saudi Gazette and UPI give the basic outline of the story, which is attributed to unidentified Yemeni sources.

Fifteen to 20 members of AQAP, including prominent leaders, are said to have left Yemen for Somalia during the first two weeks of March via Mukalla (the port in Hadramawt province) with assistance from "foreign elements".

"Sleeper" cells are said to remain in Yemen but they have been told to freeze all activities, cut off communications and suspend all meetings until the government's offensive against them dies down.

Though the story could be pure disinformation, it does sound plausible in the light of the US-instigated crackdown on al-Qaeda in Yemen following the "underpants bomber" affair.

In January last year, the Saudi and Yemeni arms of al-Qaedamerged into AQAP and made Yemen their operational base. This was mainly a result of the Saudi authorities' campaign against them which resulted in heavy losses and made operations in the kingdom difficult.

Avoiding a similar fate in Yemen by taking refuge in the failed state of Somalia would thus be a logical step. Al-Qaeda plays a long game, so lying low for a few months in the interests of self-preservation, until the world turns its attention away from Yemen, would be no big deal.

However, it would be a mistake to imagine that al-Qaeda is abandoning Yemen permanently. It is, after all, Bin Laden's ancestral homeland and there are plenty of other reasons (explained in Victoria Clark's recent book, Yemen: Dancing on the Heads of Snakes) why al-Qaeda finds the country especially attractive.

Posted by Brian Whitaker, 6 April 2010.