The question "Where, exactly, is Syria heading?" continues to be the subject of much discussion. Writing for Time magazine, Beirut-based journalist Nicholas Blanford asks: "Can the Syrian regime divide and conquer its opposition?" He doesn't quite give an answer, but suggests the regime's current strategy isn't working:

The regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has been pursuing a divide-and-conquer strategy against dissent, using specific carrots-and-sticks to appease and repress the country's complicated collection of tribal, ethnic and religious interests. 

But that does not appear to have diminished, on various local levels, the virulence of the rancor against the long rule of the Ba'ath Party and the perceived concentration of wealth and privilege in the hands of a small elite class. Indeed, while the various uprisings have not quite coalesced into the kind of mass movements that brought down the autocracies of Tunisia and Egypt, they have continued despite the violent response of the government; and the anger has spread over large swathes of Syrian territory.

In Foreign Policy, Peter Harling (of the International Crisis Group) 
talks of "a slow-motion revolution" where the protests have so far failed "to reach a critical mass and prod authorities to successfully respond to far-reaching demands". He continues:

This leaves Syrians the choice between two perilous journeys: either radical reform or outright revolution. Neither offers easy answers to the deep-seated issues at stake, including preserving Syria's fragile secular model, addressing its severe economic predicament and maintaining its regional standing.

That broadly accords with my own view that the regime is incapable of reform on the scale needed and that the struggle ahead will be prolonged and bloody. I haven't seen any articles arguing that Bashar al-Assad can successful reassert control, though a Syria expert suggested to me privately last week that he might do so by calling a presidential election and offering to take on all comers in a free contest.

Other interesting stuff on Syria:

• In the Guardian, Patrick Seale looks at the  international ramifications if Assad were to fall.

• In Pulse, Robin Yassin-Kassab discusses Syria's internal divisions (based on a couple of video presentations by Joshua Landis).

• In Asharq Alawsat, Diana Mukkaled reports on the regime'sharassment of the media. (This might seem a bit rich, coming from a Saudi publication, but never mind.)

• in the Syrian Revolution Digest blog, Ammar Abdulhamid writes about the unsavoury activities of the Shabbiha gangs, who he describes as "Assad's mercenaries".

Posted by Brian Whitaker, 12 April 2011.