With events in Gaza dominating the news from the Middle East, the long-running conflict in Syria has slid down in the headlines. To the extent that Syria is being reported at all, the main story for several days has been of political wrangling over leadership of the opposition.

This is unfortunate, because important things are happening on the ground – largely unnoticed. Rebel fighters have made significant gains while the regime, despite its continuing ability to flatten whole streets with bombs and shellfire, appears to be making an unsteady retreat. 

At the weekend, after a siege of more than a month, rebels overran the 46th Division's base at Atarib, west of Aleppo city. The base, spread over 12 sq km and said to be the largest in northern Syria, had played a key role in the Assad regime's defence of Aleppo.

Here is a report from Andrew Simmons of al-Jazeera English:

For the rebels, disabling the Atarib base is a big step forward in itself but, with an eye on battles ahead, they also captured large amounts of weaponry (see Brown Moses blog). Here's a video of a captured tank being driven away:

Yesterday, two Islamist rebel groups – Ansar al-Islam and the Jund Allah Brigades – said they had overrun the Air Defence Battalion base near Hajar al-Aswad on the southern fringes of Damascus after four days of fighting.

Noting that this the nearest military base to the capital reported to have fallen to opposition fighters since the uprising began, Reuters reports:

Video footage showed rebels walking through the site, past destroyed anti-aircraft guns, and one commander saying on a walkie-talkie: "We have completely seized the compound."

Louay al-Dimashki, an opposition activist who said he had documented the fall of the base on video, said the rebels had targeted the compound with mortars then attacked in small groups, killing 14 loyalist troops and taking 35 prisoner.

"The fighters are taking whatever ammunition and weapons they can. They cannot hold on to the base because the regime will hit them from the air," Dimashki said by phone.

Amidst all the turmoil, and with fighting in so many different places, it's easy to lose sight of the broader picture. Casualties still mount relentlessly but the trend now is clearly in the rebels' direction.

Writing for EAWorldView, James Miller says:

"Eventually, without a complete reversal of fate, the FSA will have a united front from Lattakia to Aleppo city. The regime has not won a noteworthy military victory in this territory in over two months, and without fresh supplies and reinforcements for the Assad military, and in light of significant surges in troops and equipment in the ranks of the insurgents, this trend is unlikely to reverse."

Meanwhile, the regime seems to be hunkering down in Damascus – parts of which it was also bombing heavily yesterday. Miller writes:

"The Assad regime is retreating, pulling many units towards the capital and leaving its garrisons to fend for themselves - and they are fending poorly. Meanwhile, the FSA continues to ratchet up pressure on the capital, and despite the fact that Damascus is now the highest priority of the Assad military, those advances are accelerating."

Here is a scene posted on YouTube yesterday of residents in Harasta (north-eastern suburbs of Damascus) trudging along a ruined street with their belongings:

This doesn't mean that the fall of the regime is imminent. But it does mean the regime is now well beyond any point from which it can seriously hope to recover. And, as the rebels capture more and more of its own weapons, its decline is likely to quicken. 

Posted by Brian Whitaker, 20 November 2012.