I’ve been reading some very gloomy reports from Yemen recently. With unrest in both the far north (the long-runningHouthi rebellion) and the south (revival of separatism), and complaints about the economy almost everywhere, it sounds very bad.

But … People have been making dire predictions about Yemen for years and they have usually turned out to be wrong. And if the south failed to break away in 1994 when it had its own army, how is it going to succeed now – without one?

That said, problems do seem to be piling up for the Salih regime and I wouldn’t like to hazard a guess as to what may happen. If you’re in Yemen (or have been there recently) and have views on this, send me an email.

For more about the political background leading up to this, see the last chapter of my e-book. It's titled "Muddling Through".

Posted by Brian Whitaker, 8 July 2009