Syria: Assad has sealed his fate

The first person to file an application under Syria's new law "permitting" demonstrations – Fadel al-Faisal from Hassakeh in the north-east of the country – ended up being detained for several hours by the authorities, the Guardian reports.

That, basically, tells us everything we need to know about President Assad's so-called reforms. The regime hasn't changed its attitude, and it isn't going to change. Though the law – at least in theory – now allows Syrians to protest, complying with the requirements is extremely difficult and its overall effect is to criminalise any demonstrations that the authorities disapprove of.

Friday's protests (which did not comply with the law and were therefore deemed to be "riots") were the bloodiest since the uprising began, with scores reportedly killed by security forces.

"This outrageous use of violence to quell protests must come to an end now," President Obama said – though he gave no indication of what the US might or might not do about it. However, he did seem to warn against Syria's ally – Iran – getting involved: "President Assad is blaming outsiders while seeking Iranian assistance in repressing Syria's citizens ..."

Meanwhile, the official news agency, Sana, continues to report the protests as unexplained attacks by "armed groups":

There are also hints of foreign conspiracies – phones discovered with "non-Syrian SIM cards and positioning software" – and claims that videos depicting acts of violence by the security forces are fabricated. One group is said to have possessed "bottles full of real blood" for use in filming.

Friday's events do look like some kind of watershed. The much-heralded lifting of the state of emergency on Thursday has made no difference on the ground and any lingering hopes that Assad might save his regime through a process of steady reform are now, for all practical purposes, in shreds. The regime's response to the Friday demonstrations has set the course for the next phase and can only fuel the flames: deaths bring funerals, funerals bring protests, and protests bring more deaths.

For the regime, the only tool left now is repression, and in the long run that will seal its fate. The question is how long.

After boasting in January that he had seen the lessons of Tunisia and Egypt and was not going to repeat their mistakes, President Assad now finds himself adrift on the same raft as Ben Ali, Mubarak, Gaddafi and Salih.

Posted by Brian Whitaker, 23 April 2011