Tens of thousands of demonstrators took to the streets of Bahrain on Friday, protesting at the outcome of the government's "national dialogue" which they say will not deliver far-reaching reforms. For news reports, see al-Jazeera, the Daily Star and the Financial Times.

The dialogue – widely viewed as window-dressing for the regime – was established in the wake of large-scale civil unrest in Bahrain earlier this year which was quelled through repression and thearrival of Saudi troops.

Earlier this week, a report from the International Crisis Group warned:

"The regime-decreed 'national consensus dialogue' runs the risk of becoming an exercise in treading water, while creating the illusion of forward movement, mostly for external consumption. The forum is far from being truly inclusive and can therefore not accomplish a national consensus on any of the topics under discussion. Nor does it provide for dialogue."

The ICG also quoted an "informed observer" as saying:

"Ultimately, stability in Bahrain will require social reconciliation and political restructuring. The National Dialogue will not deliver this, and it may in fact work to undermine the prospects for national reconciliation and reform …

"The National Dialogue transforms citizens insisting on their political rights into subjects petitioning the King. It is a parody of the opposition’s key demand: a constitutive assembly to realise a genuine constitutional monarchy, a system where elected representatives in a fully empowered legislative assembly could effectively hold such a 'national dialogue' and actually have the popular legitimacy and political clout to deliver on it."

The ICG's report, incidentally, is probably the most comprehensive account of the recent unrest yet published (running to more than 20,000 words), along with detailed analysis of the political issues and suggestions for a way forward.

Posted by Brian Whitaker, 30 July 2011.