It's a pity that articles in The Economist are unsigned, because I'd like to congratulate whoever wrote an article last week entitled "Revolution spinning in the wind". It's a useful antidote to the spate of articles appearing elsewhere and suggesting that just because of difficulties on the ground the "Arab spring" is grinding to a halt.
The article also calls it the "Arab awakening" rather than the "Arab spring" – a preference that I share. "Awakening" does seem to me a more accurate expression of what is happening: a long and gradual process that will take years, despite the fact that it started with the swift collapse of two long-standing regimes.
"The fall of dictators," the article says, "represents only part of a longer process in which the unspoken aim is to alter radically the balance of power between citizens and their state."
This is absolutely right. There has been far too much focus in the media on the fate of Arab regimes and not enough attention paid to the underlying processes which are much more fundamental and which (in my view) will prevent one set of dictators simply being replaced by another.
Even so, The Economist has no illusions about the difficulties ahead:
"... the pertinent question is perhaps not so much who will be next to fall but rather, what follows? The answer is not at all clear. The universal inclination of the revolutionary ferment is to create the more open, pluralist, democratic societies that have emerged in much of the world. But after two generations in a political deep freeze, Arabs face special challenges in getting there.
"Among these are such essential questions as how to frame relations between Islam and the state, how to incorporate ethnic and religious minorities and how to share oil revenues. Many Arab countries also face burdensome administrative legacies. Years of unaccountable rule have left hugely swollen, often venal bureaucracies, creaky courts, nasty security services spoiled by privilege, and publics addicted to unsustainable subsidies for such things as food and energy."
However, despite likely setbacks along the way, the writer is in no doubt about where this awakening is heading:
"... the overall trend towards democratisation is no more stoppable in the Arab world than it has been elsewhere. 'You have to understand that this is not a bunch of different revolutions,' explains a sunken-eyed Syrian student, taking a breather in Lebanon from weeks of protest-organising in Damascus. 'This is one big revolution for all the Arabs. It will not stop until it reaches everywhere'."