The Islamic State has issued a photograph showing parts of what it says was an explosive device that brought down the Russian airliner over Sinai on October 31 with the loss of 224 lives. IS also claims to have exploited a loophole at Sharm el-Sheikh airport to smuggle a bomb on board the plane before it took off.

Russian officials now appear to be in no doubt that a bomb caused the crash:

"The Russian newspaper Kommersant reported on Wednesday that investigators from the FSB intelligence agency had discovered a one-metre hole in a fragment of the plane’s fuselage with its edges turned out, indicating an explosion.

"It quoted a source close to the investigation saying the blast had occurred in the rear of the passenger cabin, near the frame of the tail. The bomb was probably placed under a window seat, the source said. Its detonation caused an explosive loss of cabin pressure, detachment of the tail and the breakup of the plane in mid-air. Those on board died almost instantly from the sharp drop in pressure, the newspaper reported."

Russian officials are also saying that chemical traces of explosives have been found, though there are no details so far.

Meanwhile, the Egyptian government continues to deny knowledge of any security lapses at Sharm el-Sheikh airport (despite ample evidence to the contrary).

In an article on the New York Times website bomb disposal experts discuss the photograph circulated by IS. The general view is that the device shown is not particularly sophisticated and when exploded would probably not destroy the plane outright. However, "depending on the nature and location of the damage, it could start a catastrophic sequence of events. A jet moving at cruising speed could then shear apart and break up".

How it might be detonated is still uncertain, the article says. It could be detonated "by a timer, by a remote-control signal from someone on the aircraft, or by other means".

Another question (assuming the IS claim is true) is whether the bomb was smuggled on to the aircraft by ground staff at the airport or carried on board (knowingly or unknowingly) by a passenger. One suggestion is that it could have been concealed in supplies of food and drink delivered to the aircraft. However, the drink can shown in the photograph is 330ml size and drinks served on aircraft are usually in smaller cans.

The IS photograph shows an Egyptian-made can of Schweppes Gold which, according to its labelling, is a non-alcoholic "pineapple flavoured malt drink".

On a cautionary note, the NYT article points out:

"There is no publicly available evidence that this device ... was in fact related to the downing of the Russian jet. The photograph could be calculated misinformation, intended to impress the terrorist group's rank and file or potential recruits and to distract law enforcement officials."

Of course, IS is not the only one with an axe to grind. Blaming an IS bomb would probably suit Russia politically, while the Egyptians are no doubt still hoping for a different explanation. And where official investigations are concerned, neither country has much of a reputation for transparency.

This is not to dispute the possibility of a bomb on board. The evidence increasingly points in that direction but it's not yet conclusive.
 
   
Posted by Brian Whitaker
Thursday, 19 November 2015