“Things have just gotten a lot more interesting,” the Arabist blogsays, commenting on news that Mohamed ElBaradei, former head of the IAEA and Nobel peace prize winner, is thinking or running for the Egyptian presidency in 2011. The Arabist continues:

This may peter out in smoke, but … ElBaradei’s candidacy has the potential to turn into the first moment in which Egypt has had a plausible face for its opposition for a long time. It will shift the focus on the Mubarak regime, its fraudulent elections and its lack of legitimacy – both at home and abroad. I am not surprised that opposition figures like Ayman Nourand the Muslim Brothers’ Muhammad Habib seem negative … ElBaradei has much more gravitas and “presidentiability” than either.

However ElBaradei says he will only compete if the election is held “under the full supervision of the judiciary ... and in the presence of international observers from the United Nations ... to ensure transparency”. 

He is also calling for a new constitution and “the erasing of all constitutional and legal obstacles that are limiting the right of the majority of Egyptians to run, “otherwise those elections will lack the needed legitimacy and will contradict the essence of democracy which is the right of the people to choose who to represent them, and it will end in a Greek tragedy.”

These criticisms of the current system have not pleased the Mubarak regime and, perhaps recognising that ElBaradei is too much of a heavyweight to be thrown into jail as Ayman Nour was, it has launched an early media offensive against him.

A headline in the semi-official al-Ahram said: “ElBaradei demands a constitutional coup” and another in al-Ahram al-Messaei read: “Imported president for Egypt”. Efforts are being made to portray him as a foreigner (having spent a good deal of time outside the country) and there are claims that he has a Swedish passport.
Sections of the opposition are also unhappy about ElBaradei’s intervention, as The National points out. 

But Alaa Al Aswany, author of the best-selling novel, The Yacoubian Building, and a prominent critic of the government, thinks ElBaradei’s candidacy is a good idea. “ElBaradei is the most serious opposition candidate – if he should stand in the presidential election, he would create real problems for the regime,” he said. “He is a figure of international dimensions and has proven his ability to act competently and with efficiency.”

It is not clear, though, if El-Baradei would be allowed to stand in a presidential election: the rules for candidates are designed to make it difficult. 

Posted by Brian Whitaker, 6 December 2009.