According to a Yemeni politician, the recent parcel bombs affair was part of "a suspicious plan for harming Yemen's sovereignty and its independence in preparation for imposing foreign agendas".

The remarks – from Salah al-Saiadi, secretary of the Yemeni Popular Democratic party (described as an ally of the ruling party) – were broadcast on al-Ikhbaria TV channel and reported without challenge in the Yemen Observer.

Another article in the Yemen Observer, headed "Al-Qaeda, Yemen, and the Great Game", talks at length about foreign powers' designs on Yemen. In support of its argument, it quotes a "sharply detailed"analysis by an American-German writer, William Engdahl, entitled "The Yemen Hidden Agenda". 

Let's be absolutely clear about it: this stuff is rubbish, though the uncritical way it's often treated is worrying.

Foreign powers have no intrinsic interest in Yemen. In a way, that's part of the problem, because in quiet times they do little or nothing to help its development. They only take an interest when they see some kind of threat, and when the threat declines again, so does their interest. Even in colonial times, Britain regarded Yemen as little more than a coal bunker for refuelling ships on the route to India. These days, ships don't need coal and Britain no longer rules India.

Salah al-Saiadi may not be an influential politician but his hypothesising about foreign conspiracies, together with the longer article in the Yemen Observer, reflects a significant strand of opinion in Yemen: many people simply don't believe what they are told about al-Qaeda, even when it's well substantiated as in the case of the parcel bombs.

This is partly due to the Salih regime's lack of credibility – especially its habit of using the al-Qaeda label as a general smear against opponents – but also to western media hysteria about al-Qaeda and Yemen (sometimes coupled with calls for full-scale military intervention). In the face of so much exaggerated talk it's not surprising that people are sceptical, but their scepticism makes the battle against genuine threats that much harder.

We certainly shouldn't underestimate al-Qaeda, but it's important not to overestimate it either.

Posted by Brian Whitaker, 19 November 2010