A doctored photograph from the semi-official al-Ahram newspaper, showing Mubarak leading the way during his visit to the White House last September
  

With Egyptian protesters beginning a "million-person march" today – probably heading for the presidential palace – Mubarak's latest ploy is to shut down the country's entire rail network in the hope of keeping people away. But as with the night-time curfew, the banning of al-Jazeera and the internet shutdown, it's unlikely to have much effect on the protesters' determination.

With the last local internet connection now severed, Google has announced a new service allowing Egyptians to tweet via voicemail. "We hope that this will go some way to helping people in Egypt stay connected at this very difficult time," it said.

Demonstrators had already begun gathering in Cairo's Tahrir Square yesterday evening to spend the night there amid what was described as a carnival atmosphere. The army has said it will stand by today but not intervene. However, there are fears that the regime may organise a counter-demonstration – which could result in trouble.

Yesterday, President Mubarak swore-in his new cabinet which includes plenty of old faces, though it does exclude several business chums of his son, Gamal. Farouk Hosni, the veteran culture minister, is also out. Al-Masry al-Youm newspaper has 
more details.

This certainly does not look like the kind of cabinet to implement the rapid reforms that the US has been calling for. Nevertheless, President Obama has despatched a special envoy to facilitate political change. He is 73-year-old Frank Wisner who served as ambassador to Cairo more than 20 years ago.

Meanwhile, former British prime minister Tony Blair said change in Egypt is "inevitable" but must be managed, adding that it must not be allowed to harm the Israeli-Palestinian peace process (which in any case is more or less dead). Former US president Jimmy Carter was more forthright, saying that "the people have decided" and Mubarak "will have to leave".

Egypt's new vice-president, Omar Suleiman, appeared on television last night to say Mubarak has ordered him to start talks with the opposition – though nobody seems to have taken any notice of that, or of his promised to issue a government policy statement "within days".

We are now one week into the Egyptian uprising and the only real solution is for Mubarak to go. Instead, he seems intent on taking the country into oblivion with him. But, as almost everyone recognises, this is not just about Egypt; it's about the whole Middle East. Mubarak's fate will also, so some extent, determine that of the other ageing autocrats.

Mubarak is so stubborn that it's hard to be sure what's needed to finally tip him over the edge. Will it be a group of generals confronting him and telling him the game is up? Will he suddenly decide that he needs urgent medical treatment abroad? Will an impending economic collapse force him out? Whatever it is that does the trick, I doubt that we shall have long to wait.

Posted by Brian Whitaker, 1 Feb 2011.