Shooting in Homs early on Tuesday. YouTube video posted byalhamoui
  

In an interview at the end of January, President Assad talked confidently about the lessons of Tunisia and Egypt: in Syria, he was handling things differently.

"If you did not see the need for reform before what happened in Egypt and in Tunisia, it is too late to do any reform," he told the Wall Street Journal. "If you do it just because of what happened in Tunisia and Egypt, then it is going to be a reaction, not an action; and as long as what you are doing is a reaction you are going to fail."

Less than three months later, Assad faces the same situation as Ben Ali and Mubarak. His promises of reform have been greeted with stony-faced disbelief. Having lost the initiative, he is now reacting helplessly to events and, based on his own prediction, he is going to fail.

On Monday, a massive crowd gathered in the Clock Square of Homs, Syria's third largest city – or Tharir Square as the protesters are now calling it.

Around midnight, state television broadcast an interior ministry statement describing the unrest as an "armed insurrection" and, 
according to Reuters, pointing specifically to Homs as one of two cities where "armed groups belonging to Salafist organisations" were trying to terrorise the population.
   

Clock Square, Homs, on Monday night. Twitpic posted byShantal7afana
  

Around 2am, a member of the security forces addressed the protesters in Clock Square through a loudspeaker ordering them to leave by 2.30. Al-Jazeera's live blog continues the story:

2:16am
Syrian forces fired shots at hundreds of protesters who had gathered overnight ...

2:40am
A protester at the Clock Square in Homs says many people are dead after security forces open fire at protesters. Al Jazeera cannot verify these reports. 

3:26am
Al Jazeera's Cal Perry, in Damascus, says witnesses in Homs tell him that several people are wounded and rushed to hospital in cars, but medics are unable to reach the square because of gunfire. He's also told people are afraid to go to the hospital, thinking that if they go, security forces will be waiting for them there and they will end up in detention.

4:00am
Reports on Twitter say tanks are rolling into the centre of Homs. Heavy gunfire is also reported and security forces allegedly broke into Khaled bin al-Waleed mosque. Al Jazeera cannot independently verify these reports.

4:55am
At least two people were injured in the shooting at Clock Square in Homs. Unconfirmed reports say that a number of people were killed when security forces opened fire at protesters, however, Al Jazeera cannot independently verify this. 

In the video above, apparently filmed from the edge of the square, periods of continuous firing can be heard.

At the time of writing, casualty figures are unknown. The Syrian Revolution Digest says:

"Early reports spoke of heavy gunfire but mentioned only one fatality and a number of injured. Videos that were posted later seem to confirm these reports. Assad security officers might have been shooting in the air to scare off the remaining protesters, rather than at them, for once. 

"However, later reports indicate that the main theater of events are the side-streets where security officers tried to trap and arrest protesters as they pulled out from the Square, occasionally firing straight at them, as some eyewitnesses asserted."

Just two days earlier, President Assad had been telling his new ministers about his plans to allow demonstrations (while drawing a distinction between those that demand reform and those that are considered "sabotage").

From tentative beginnings one month ago, the Syrian uprising now looks firmly established. Neither attacks by security forces nor promises of reform from the president have succeeded in quelling the protests. As Ammar Abdulhamid wrote on Sunday ...

"It’s now an open showdown between people that want to be free and will no longer compromise on freedom, seeing that previous experiences taught them that such compromises, no matter how reasonable they might appear at the time, always lead back to slavery and serfdom, and a gang of thugs willing and desperate to hold on to power at any cost. The so-called silent majority as well as the international community will have to choose their side soon."

On the protesters' side there is a growing sense that, having gone so far, they now have to see it through to the end – even if it turns out to be a very bitter end. There may not be another opportunity for years.

In an article written under a pseudonym for the Institute for War and Peace Reporting, a "media professional based in Syria" says:

"Of course, Assad will try to implement some of the same reforms seen in Egypt to prevent mass outrage, and now he is furiously trying to win the loyalty of the Kurds and religious groups by making concessions to them.

"But, in my view, you cannot fix a fundamentally dysfunctional regime. We need to build democracy step by step, even if it means risking more instability and violence in the near future. We are never going to mature politically unless we go through this. What I and other activists are doing is of course very dangerous, but we all have to risk ourselves for Syria. The moment is here now, and who knows when we might get it again."

Continuing demonstrations are an essential part of this process, though on their own they probably won't succeed in toppling the regime: Assad may simply try to sit it out, as Ali Abdullah Salih is doing in Yemen. The regime is only going to fall when it starts crumbling from within – and as yet there is no sign of that. The battle for Syria could prove to be a protracted affair.

Posted by Brian Whitaker, 19 April 2011