Election workers in Syria. Photo posted by Lyse Doucet of the BBC (@bbclysedoucet).

   
To describe today's parliamentary election in Syria as "cosmetic" would probably be over-generous. Nobody expects it to change the political reality and it's unlikely to change appearances much, either.

Cosmetic elections, of which there have been plenty in the Middle East, do at least try to give the impression of advancing towards democracy. Monitors are allowed in to observe the electoral process and opposition candidates are allowed to win significant numbers of seats – though of course not enough to upset the status quo.

The Syrian election is more than a year overdue. It was delayed while the regime prepared a new constitution, a new electoral law and a law for licensing political parties – reforms that President Assad has privately described as "rubbish". 

Even if the Baath party is no longer officially enshrined as "the leading party in the society and the state", it will continue to dominate the parliament: as Mahmoud al-Abrash, the parliamentary speaker put it recently: "It is mathematically impossible for any other party to win."

From a voter's perspective, there are two main changes since the 2007 election. There are more candidates, and government-approved "independent" parties are taking part for the first time (though the main opposition forces are not represented).

This time, 7,195 candidates are competing for 250 seats, compared with 2,293 candidates in 2007. That allows voters more choice, though whether they can make informed choices is another matter: it's hard to know what – if anything – individual candidates stand for. Michael Jansen writes in the Irish Times:

While independents and members of licensed political parties declared their candidates some time ago, the ruling Baath party and its partners in the National Progressive Front did not do so until Tuesday.

Most of those running for, and against, the Front are unknowns. They are “faces with names on posters and no programmes”, said one commentator.

One potential voter said he knew no one standing in his constituency and that, unless he found a credible candidate from one of the new parties, he would vote for his “tribe”, a figure from his ethnic community.

It's scarcely surprising if voters are bemused, trying to work out which of the "independent" candidates are genuinely independent, and which are not. Reporting from Damascus for the Financial Times, Michael Peel wrote:

A spotlight shone through the early evening Damascus sky, heralding the campaign launch of Mohammed Nabil al-Nouri, independent parliamentary candidate – and loyal supporter of Bashar al-Assad, the president.

In his thinly populated election tent, Mr Nouri said Syria’s uprising should be seen as a family crisis that had erupted only because the leader and patriarch had not been told by the mother – or government – of the problems faced by his children, the people.

“The father loves his children and he gives his life to his children,” explained Mr Nouri, a businessmen who said he had never previously been involved in politics. “And our mother is not a bad lady – but she needs some advice from her family to change the way she takes care of her children.”

Mr Nouri’s analysis – and his claim of independence from the leader he wholeheartedly backs – capture the tone of a poll ...

Peel continues:

“All these photos of people we have never seen before,” drily noted one young Damascene professional. “It’s funny: you see a picture of an old man saying: ‘Let the youth build Syria’.”

Candidates’ literature is often striking for how it ignores or makes only oblique references to the existential crisis facing Syria. While the first campaign demand of Belal Yaseen Soulayten, a journalist from the coastal town of Latakia, is that citizens should be more involved in decision making, his second is for better e-government services.

Some Syrians are also suspicious of the way that campaign materials avoid mentioning the Ba’ath party, almost the sole source of political power and patronage during the Assad dynasty’s four-decade rule. “This is the amazing thing,” reflected one businessman. “There is no sign saying: ‘Elect me. I am from the Ba’ath party’.”

Meanwhile, the nine newly-licensed political parties have had little chance to establish themselves, even if they were actually trying to win. Oraib al-Rantawi, of the Amman-based Al-Quds Centre for Political Studies, describes them as "cartoons’ without agendas, revolving in the orbit of the regime ... they do not represent serious political forces."

Only seven of the nine new political parties are fielding candidates and they clearly have no chance of upsetting the political apple-cart.

Drawing any firm conclusion from today's results will also be extremely difficult, even if we are charitable and assume the ballot isn't rigged. In the 2007 election, for example, the Baath party won 134 seats – just over half. Other parties that were permitted at the time (allies of the Baath under the umbrella of the National Progressive Front) added a further 35 seats, and the remaining 81 seats went to "non-partisans".

Non-partisan, in this context, doesn't necessarily mean "independent" or "opposition" – it just means they are not formally representing a political party, even if in reality they are allies of the regime. 

The upshot is that the number of seats won by the Baath party itself doesn't much matter: it has more than enough "friends" in parliament to maintain control.

Turnout in the 2007 election was officially put at 56.1% (of 11.96 million eligible voters). Turnout figures in Syrian elections are rarely believed (some estimates in 2007 put the real figure as low as 10%) but it will be interesting to see what turnout figure the regime comes up with this time, given the turmoil on the streets.

Last night, a list was circulated on the internet purporting to name the winning candidates in Damascus. This may simply be opposition propaganda, intended to suggest that the outcome has been decided in advance, or – conceivably – it's a genuine leak from inside the regime. Either way, we won't have to wait long to find out.

Voting in Syria: photo from the official news agency, Sana.

Correction: An earlier version of this post said the new parties were fielding only seven candidates. It should have said that only seven of the nine parties were fielding candidates.