There has been a flurry of articles over the last few days about new weaponry reaching anti-Assad fighters in Syria. This is a very significant development, for two reasons.

First, it reflects a shift in attitudes among some western and Arab governments as far as arming the rebels is concerned. It's not a change in official policy but nor is it simply a matter of turning a blind eye to arms supplies. Evidence suggests the supply of weapons is being actively managed and directed, though obviously the process is happening at arm's length in the hope that it will remain deniable.

Secondly, this is not necessarily meant to hasten Assad's fall. It seems to have be prompted more by fears that when Assad does go jihadist groups will hold the upper hand. The aim, therefore, is to shift the balance among opposition fighters in favour of the less extreme elements.

The following articles help to fill in the picture:

In Syria, new influx of weapons to rebels tilts the battle against Assad
Liz Sly and Karen DeYoung, Washington Post, 24 February.

Who just started arming Syria rebels?
Michael Weiss, NOW, 20 February.

Saudis step up help for rebels in Syria with Croatian arms
CJ Chivers and Eric Schmitt, New York Times, 25 February.

Weapons from the former Yugoslavia spread through Syria’s war
Eliot Higgins (@Brown_Moses), New York Times blog, 25 February.

Sightings of new weaponry in Syria have been highlighted over the last few weeks by several blogs, including Brown Moses, The Trigger, The Gun and EA Worldview.

It's still too early to say what this will achieve. The dangers are that it could further escalate the conflict and/or lead to fighting amongst the rebel groups themselves. A lot will depend on the response from Moscow and Tehran.

Posted by Brian Whitaker, 26 February 2013